#11Jayon Farrar

WR·Fresno State·2025

Jayon Farrar is a Slot Specialist WR for Fresno State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jayon Farrar's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

12 Receptions114 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume13
Explosiveness17
Consistency18
Pass-Down77

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency18th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.61 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	@Kansas	L7-31	4.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W42-14	-9.4	3	39	13.0	0	15	1.61
2	@Oregon State	W36-27	-15.9	1	-2	-2.0	0	0	-0.73
3	vsSouthern	W56-7	—	2	18	9.0	0	13	0.17
7	@Colorado State	L21-49	-15.6	3	40	13.3	0	14	1.51
9	vsSan Diego State	L0-23	6.7	2	17	8.5	0	13	-0.07
10	@Boise State	W30-7	3.1	1	2	2.0	0	2	-0.50

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.6%

Passing plays

9.2%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

3.5%

Passing downs

6.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / -1.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).