#31Jarvion Franklin

RB·Western Michigan·2017 2016 20142.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jarvion Franklin is a 3-year Featured Back for Western Michigan. Jarvion's 2016 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 226 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jarvion Franklin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8089
National rank: #1,690
High school: Victor J Andrew
Hometown: Bolingbrook, IL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2016 Production

Rushing

1353 Rush yards12 Rush TD248 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions288 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume74
Explosiveness50
Consistency46
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	W22-21	2.9	11	38	3.5	0	4	30	0	-0.21
2	vsNorth Carolina Central	W70-21	—	17	91	5.4	1	1	4	0	0.17
3	@Illinois	W34-10	-6.7	17	78	4.6	1	1	-4	0	-0.03
4	vsGeorgia Southern	W49-31	-3.9	3	6	2.0	0	1	6	0	-0.38
5	@Central Michigan	W49-10	-6.1	23	132	5.7	2	—	—	—	0.47
6	vsNorthern Illinois	W45-30	-2.4	31	169	5.5	1	3	80	1	0.63
7	@Akron	W41-0	-5.6	33	281	8.5	1	1	18	0	0.57
8	vsEastern Michigan	W45-31	-8.2	22	114	5.2	1	—	—	—	0.10
10	@Ball State	W52-20	-7.0	17	109	6.4	2	1	4	0	0.60
11	@Kent State	W37-21	-12.0	31	134	4.3	1	1	17	0	0.12
12	vsBuffalo	W38-0	-18.8	17	76	4.5	0	5	71	1	-0.13
13	vsToledo	W55-35	12.3	10	38	3.8	2	2	16	0	0.38
14	vsOhio	W29-23	-2.1	9	34	3.8	0	1	13	0	-0.20
1	vsWisconsin	L16-24	16.1	7	53	7.6	0	4	33	0	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.8%

Passing plays

5.9%

Rushing plays

39.1%

Standard downs

29.1%

Passing downs

16.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.74 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2017 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Western Michigan	4.4	0.360	—	86.0
2016	Western Michigan	2.0	0.270	-0.09	61.6
2017	Western Michigan	1.8	0.230	-0.04	50.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.