#5Jaden Bray

WR·Oklahoma State·2023

Jaden Bray is a Versatile WR for Oklahoma State. Jaden's 2023 season produced 18.7 total EPA across 45 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jaden Bray's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

30 Receptions382 Rec yards2 Rec TD12.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume21
Explosiveness38
Consistency48
Pass-Down2

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency48th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 2.32 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Houston (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Arkansas	W27-13	—	5	66	13.2	0	39	0.39
2	@Arizona State	W27-15	-11.3	4	52	13.0	0	16	0.61
3	vsSouth Alabama	L7-33	5.1	5	42	8.4	0	10	0.06
4	@Iowa State	L27-34	7.5	4	55	13.8	0	17	1.36
6	vsKansas State	W29-21	16.2	4	77	19.3	0	45	0.07
7	vsKansas	W39-32	9.9	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.11
8	@West Virginia	W48-34	7.5	4	53	13.3	1	29	0.76
12	@Houston	W43-30	-7.8	1	23	23.0	1	23	2.32
13	vsBYU	W40-34	-3.3	1	11	11.0	0	11	0.07
14	vsTexas	L21-49	23.2	1	-1	-1.0	0	0	-0.78

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.2%

Passing plays

12.4%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

8.2%

Passing downs

4.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.48
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / -0.91

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).