#4I'Tavius Mathers

RB·Middle Tennessee·20163.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

I'Tavius Mathers is a Pass-Catching Back for Middle Tennessee. I'Tavius's 2016 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 279 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So I'Tavius Mathers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1561 Rush yards17 Rush TD232 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

66 Receptions633 Rec yards3 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency60
Volume89
Explosiveness74
Consistency74
Receiving76

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.93 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama A&M	W55-0	—	7	62	8.9	1	3	20	0	0.52
2	@Vanderbilt	L24-47	-1.2	13	65	5.0	0	6	63	0	0.20
3	@Bowling Green	W41-21	-6.6	27	157	5.8	3	4	103	1	0.48
4	vsLouisiana Tech	W38-34	3.1	21	163	7.8	3	5	74	1	0.59
5	@North Texas	W30-13	-14.6	24	135	5.6	1	2	7	0	-0.06
7	vsWestern Kentucky	L43-44	15.5	22	143	6.5	2	7	35	0	0.49
8	@Missouri	W51-45	-1.0	28	215	7.7	1	8	48	1	0.32
9	@Florida International	W42-35	-19.0	14	112	8.0	1	6	69	0	0.42
10	vsUTSA	L25-45	-11.2	15	93	6.2	0	8	63	0	0.32
11	@Marshall	L17-42	-12.7	15	45	3.0	1	5	27	0	-0.23
12	@Charlotte	W38-31	-20.9	16	101	6.3	0	6	43	0	0.06
13	vsFlorida Atlantic	W77-56	-14.1	18	213	11.8	3	2	37	0	0.93
1	vsHawai'i	L35-52	-10.1	12	57	4.8	1	4	44	0	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.3%

Passing plays

13.1%

Rushing plays

57.5%

Standard downs

37.5%

Passing downs

18.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.