#27Gavin Sawchuk

RB·Florida State·2025

Gavin Sawchuk is a Explosive Back for Florida State. Gavin's 2025 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 125 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Gavin Sawchuk's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

486 Rush yards8 Rush TD109 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions121 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency83
Volume43
Explosiveness30
Consistency34
Receiving62

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency34th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (83th percentile).
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.60 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.57 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs East Texas A&M.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama	W31-17	14.8	6	28	4.7	1	1	3	0	0.03
2	vsEast Texas A&M	W77-3	—	8	35	4.4	2	1	53	1	1.57
4	vsKent State	W66-10	-19.3	11	97	8.8	2	—	—	—	0.88
5	@Virginia	L38-46	11.1	17	74	4.4	1	1	4	0	0.28
6	vsMiami	L22-28	20.7	11	47	4.3	0	3	25	0	0.10
7	vsPittsburgh	L31-34	8.4	14	71	5.1	0	1	16	0	0.35
8	@Stanford	L13-20	-11.8	20	70	3.5	0	2	1	0	0.07
10	vsWake Forest	W42-7	5.7	6	10	1.7	2	—	—	—	0.19
11	@Clemson	L10-24	9.5	1	1	1.0	0	2	7	0	-0.26
12	vsVirginia Tech	W34-14	-10.1	3	11	3.7	0	—	—	—	-0.18
13	@NC State	L11-21	4.8	8	35	4.4	0	1	5	0	0.14
14	@Florida	L21-40	3.5	4	7	1.8	0	1	7	0	-0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.9%

Passing plays

5.1%

Rushing plays

22.5%

Standard downs

18.0%

Passing downs

7.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).