What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Eddie Lee Marburger's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2024 Production
Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume30
- Dual-Threat20
- Consistency32
- Clutch0
Maximises EPA per play through accuracy, decision-making, and getting the ball to the right place.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 2.84 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs East Carolina (SP+ -1).
NIL Market Tier· 2024
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 2.85
- Passing downs
- 0.48
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 1.07 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).