#0Dylan Riley

RB·Boise State·2025

Dylan Riley is a Committee Back for Boise State. Dylan's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 188 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dylan Riley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1125 Rush yards10 Rush TD195 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions149 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume58
Explosiveness56
Consistency22
Receiving37

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency22th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.39 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.29 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Eastern Washington.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@South Florida	L7-34	11.6	7	20	2.9	0	—	—	—	-0.39
2	vsEastern Washington	W51-14	—	6	123	20.5	1	1	5	0	1.29
4	@Air Force	W49-37	-3.2	19	171	9.0	4	2	84	1	0.99
5	vsApp State	W47-14	-11.4	16	46	2.9	0	1	0	0	-0.33
6	@Notre Dame	L7-28	24.4	5	33	6.6	0	2	11	0	0.35
7	vsNew Mexico	W41-25	0.9	18	101	5.6	0	1	14	0	0.06
8	vsUNLV	W56-31	4.3	15	201	13.4	1	—	—	—	0.54
9	@Nevada	W24-3	-13.4	12	34	2.8	1	2	16	0	0.04
10	vsFresno State	L7-30	1.8	6	16	2.7	0	1	-4	0	-0.05
12	@San Diego State	L7-17	6.7	21	79	3.8	1	—	—	—	-0.08
13	vsColorado State	W49-21	-15.6	14	72	5.1	1	2	4	0	-0.02
14	@Utah State	W25-24	-3.1	25	120	4.8	1	2	10	0	0.02
15	vsUNLV	W38-21	4.3	21	75	3.6	0	1	9	1	-0.06
20	vsWashington	L10-38	18.4	10	34	3.4	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.4%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

36.2%

Standard downs

23.8%

Passing downs

13.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.00
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).