#3Drew Lock

QB·Missouri·2018 201711.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Drew Lock is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Missouri. Drew's 2018 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 467 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drew Lock's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

275/437 Comp/Att3498 Pass yards28 Pass TD8 INT62.9% Comp %

Rushing

175 Rush yards6 Rush TD55 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat56
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UT Martin.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUT Martin	W51-14	—	19/25	289	4	0	5	0	0.89
2	vsWyoming	W40-13	1.9	33/45	398	4	0	51	1	0.67
3	@Purdue	W40-37	6.5	26/43	375	3	1	-10	1	0.44
4	vsGeorgia	L29-43	32.9	23/48	221	0	1	22	1	0.13
6	@South Carolina	L35-37	14.9	17/36	204	0	2	14	0	-0.07
7	@Alabama	L10-39	36.3	13/26	142	1	2	-33	0	-0.07
8	vsMemphis	W65-33	9.2	23/29	350	4	0	36	0	0.81
9	vsKentucky	L14-15	13.1	15/27	165	0	0	-14	0	0.00
10	@Florida	W38-17	23.0	24/32	250	3	0	19	0	0.55
11	vsVanderbilt	W33-28	7.6	22/33	253	2	2	27	1	0.49
12	@Tennessee	W50-17	5.5	21/30	257	2	0	16	0	0.41
13	vsArkansas	W38-0	4.5	16/25	221	2	0	12	2	0.49
1	vsOklahoma State	L33-38	13.8	23/38	373	3	0	30	0	0.48

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.6%

Passing plays

96.9%

Rushing plays

8.8%

Standard downs

41.6%

Passing downs

62.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.62
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Missouri	11.5	0.630	—	248.2
2018	Missouri	11.0	0.553	-0.08	274.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.