#3Drew Lock

QB·Missouri·2018 201711.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Drew Lock is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Missouri. Drew's 2017 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 404 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drew Lock's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

242/419 Comp/Att3964 Pass yards44 Pass TD13 INT57.8% Comp %

Rushing

111 Rush yards1 Rush TD44 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency88
Volume100
Dual-Threat41
Consistency78
Clutch78

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.01 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Missouri State.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMissouri State	W72-43	—	21/34	521	7	1	96.4	-6	0	1.01
2	vsSouth Carolina	L13-31	7.8	14/32	245	1	2	14.5	-3	0	0.11
3	vsPurdue	L3-35	5.8	12/28	133	0	2	14.8	4	0	-0.15
4	vsAuburn	L14-51	24.7	23/39	216	2	1	25.5	9	0	0.23
6	@Kentucky	L34-40	2.7	22/42	355	3	0	67.8	0	1	0.39
7	@Georgia	L28-53	26.7	15/25	253	4	1	85.5	15	0	0.60
8	vsIdaho	W68-21	-12.4	23/33	467	6	1	97.5	-2	0	0.96
9	@UConn	W52-12	-19.2	31/37	377	5	0	92.9	-7	0	0.64
10	vsFlorida	W45-16	10.1	15/20	228	3	1	90.8	35	0	0.72
11	vsTennessee	W50-17	1.2	13/28	217	4	1	—	3	0	0.10
12	@Vanderbilt	W45-17	0.6	10/25	235	3	0	47.9	37	0	0.48
13	@Arkansas	W48-45	2.1	25/42	448	5	2	88.1	26	0	0.55
1	vsTexas	L16-33	10.6	18/34	269	1	1	48.0	0	0	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.6%

Passing plays

97.1%

Rushing plays

7.2%

Standard downs

45.1%

Passing downs

60.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Missouri	11.5	0.630	—	248.2
2018	Missouri	11.0	0.553	-0.08	274.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.