#10Drake Maye

QB·North Carolina·2023 202213.0 pts line value1st Round

Drake Maye is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Drake's 2022 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 679 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drake Maye's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

342/516 Comp/Att4321 Pass yards38 Pass TD7 INT66.3% Comp %

Rushing

699 Rush yards7 Rush TD184 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat96
Consistency81
Clutch92

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.39 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Virginia Tech (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4
Sam Ehlinger	Texas	2019	652	0.535	13.2	349.0
Dak Prescott	Mississippi State	2015	655	0.514	13.6	336.6
Clayton Tune	Houston	2022	652	0.542	13.9	353.3
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida A&M	W56-24	—	29/37	294	5	0	92.7	55	0	0.70
1	@App State	W63-61	1.7	24/35	352	4	0	94.3	76	1	0.70
2	@Georgia State	W35-28	-3.3	19/24	284	2	1	82.2	15	0	0.47
4	vsNotre Dame	L32-45	10.3	17/32	301	5	0	88.5	37	0	0.65
5	vsVirginia Tech	W41-10	-9.5	26/36	363	3	0	94.8	73	2	0.76
6	@Miami	W27-24	-2.7	19/28	309	2	2	89.6	53	0	0.40
7	@Duke	W38-35	5.0	28/38	380	3	0	76.6	70	0	0.56
9	vsPittsburgh	W42-24	8.6	34/44	388	5	0	93.4	61	0	0.49
10	@Virginia	W31-28	-9.0	26/37	293	2	0	88.0	74	1	0.39
11	@Wake Forest	W36-34	8.2	31/49	448	3	0	83.3	71	1	0.29
12	vsGeorgia Tech	L17-21	-11.8	16/30	202	0	1	34.9	13	0	0.06
13	vsNC State	L27-30	6.8	29/49	233	1	1	63.6	32	1	0.07
14	vsClemson	L10-39	17.6	26/42	268	0	2	—	24	1	-0.08
1	vsOregon	L27-28	18.9	18/35	206	3	0	—	45	0	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

68.1%

Passing plays

98.8%

Rushing plays

31.8%

Standard downs

59.3%

Passing downs

87.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	North Carolina	13.0	0.523	—	369.6
2023	North Carolina	9.7	0.535	+0.01	275.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.