#4Devin Spencer

RB·Arkansas State·2025

Devin Spencer is a Pass-Catching Back for Arkansas State. Devin's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 146 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Spencer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

559 Rush yards3 Rush TD108 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions125 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume43
Explosiveness44
Consistency0
Receiving83

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.29 from the first to second half of the season.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W42-24	—	3	42	14.0	1	—	—	—	-1.06
2	vsArkansas	L14-56	5.1	5	31	6.2	0	4	14	0	0.34
3	vsIowa State	L16-24	9.9	10	31	3.1	0	2	21	0	-0.15
4	@Kennesaw State	L21-28	-5.4	14	61	4.4	0	1	5	0	-0.01
5	@UL Monroe	L16-28	-21.6	7	23	3.3	0	3	11	0	-0.27
6	vsTexas State	W31-30	2.3	4	12	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.18
8	@South Alabama	W15-14	-12.7	8	50	6.3	0	2	3	0	0.25
9	vsGeorgia Southern	W34-24	-9.4	14	123	8.8	0	1	10	0	0.18
10	@Troy	W23-10	-4.8	5	8	1.6	0	1	5	0	-0.21
11	vsSouthern Miss	L21-27	-7.1	11	47	4.3	0	1	7	0	0.20
13	vsLouisiana	L30-34	-10.1	16	71	4.4	1	7	39	0	0.23
14	@App State	W30-29	-11.4	5	24	4.8	0	1	13	0	-0.07
20	vsMissouri State	W34-28	-10.7	6	36	6.0	1	2	-3	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.9%

Passing plays

6.8%

Rushing plays

25.6%

Standard downs

16.7%

Passing downs

10.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.01
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.13 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).