#10Darian Mensah

QB·Duke·2025 20247.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Darian Mensah is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Duke. Darian's 2025 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 542 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Darian Mensah's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

334/500 Comp/Att3973 Pass yards34 Pass TD6 INT66.8% Comp %

Rushing

-32 Rush yards1 Rush TD59 Carries-0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat23
Consistency90
Clutch75

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency90th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Syracuse (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsElon	W45-17	—	27/34	389	3	0	68.8	-10	0	0.58
2	vsIllinois	L19-45	12.9	23/34	334	2	1	68.4	2	0	0.34
3	@Tulane	L27-34	6.3	30/51	313	3	1	71.0	2	0	0.32
4	vsNC State	W45-33	4.8	19/28	269	3	0	88.2	-2	0	0.50
5	@Syracuse	W38-3	-13.1	22/28	268	2	0	88.1	-22	0	0.59
6	@California	W45-21	-3.2	22/30	265	2	0	86.6	-18	0	0.33
8	vsGeorgia Tech	L18-27	9.3	32/44	373	2	0	61.0	-13	0	0.46
10	@Clemson	W46-45	9.5	27/41	361	4	0	91.4	-6	0	0.49
11	@UConn	L34-37	5.1	22/31	222	3	2	74.8	3	0	0.35
12	vsVirginia	L17-34	11.1	18/35	213	1	0	30.4	-4	0	0.05
13	@North Carolina	W32-25	-6.6	20/33	175	1	0	84.6	27	0	0.32
14	vsWake Forest	W49-32	5.7	24/35	268	2	0	90.1	-12	1	0.42
15	vsVirginia	W27-20	11.1	19/25	196	2	1	82.1	0	0	0.43
20	vsArizona State	W42-39	3.9	29/51	327	4	1	60.5	21	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.0%

Passing plays

98.5%

Rushing plays

8.3%

Standard downs

49.9%

Passing downs

73.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	Tulane	7.0	0.543	—	188.0
2025	Duke	7.7	0.420	-0.12	206.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.