#1Dalyn Dawkins

RB·Colorado State·20171.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Dalyn Dawkins is a Featured Back for Colorado State. Dalyn's 2017 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 258 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dalyn Dawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1399 Rush yards8 Rush TD226 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions310 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.9 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns16 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume76
Explosiveness64
Consistency65
Receiving55

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Nevada (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado	L3-17	2.0	14	43	3.1	0	3	31	0	0.26
1	vsOregon State	W58-27	-12.6	15	67	4.5	1	1	18	1	0.26
2	vsAbilene Christian	W38-10	—	12	73	6.1	1	1	20	0	-0.02
3	@Alabama	L23-41	33.5	10	59	5.9	0	2	30	0	0.56
5	@Hawai'i	W51-21	-19.7	17	130	7.6	1	2	3	0	0.14
6	@Utah State	W27-14	-3.3	21	121	5.8	0	2	11	0	0.01
7	vsNevada	W44-42	-16.4	17	191	11.2	1	1	38	0	0.71
8	@New Mexico	W27-24	-12.4	12	71	5.9	0	1	16	0	0.31
9	vsAir Force	L28-45	-11.0	13	141	10.8	1	3	39	0	0.58
10	@Wyoming	L13-16	-2.5	29	154	5.3	0	—	—	—	0.07
11	vsBoise State	L52-59	9.1	32	161	5.0	2	4	67	0	0.15
12	vsSan José State	W42-14	-20.0	24	138	5.8	1	3	37	0	0.29
1	vsMarshall	L28-31	-4.5	10	50	5.0	0	3	0	0	-0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.6%

Passing plays

8.1%

Rushing plays

44.6%

Standard downs

29.7%

Passing downs

20.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.