#2Ashton Jeanty

RB·Boise State·2024 20232.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ashton Jeanty is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Boise State. Ashton's 2023 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 250 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ashton Jeanty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1351 Rush yards14 Rush TD221 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

43 Receptions569 Rec yards5 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency40
Volume92
Explosiveness62
Consistency76
Receiving77

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Washington (SP+ 16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Washington	L19-56	16.4	10	44	4.4	1	4	109	1	0.83
2	vsUCF	L16-18	3.4	24	115	4.8	0	5	97	1	0.50
3	vsNorth Dakota	W42-18	—	16	43	2.7	3	5	30	0	-0.18
4	@San Diego State	W34-31	-10.3	23	205	8.9	2	4	49	0	0.77
5	@Memphis	L32-35	3.5	23	82	3.6	2	5	53	2	0.34
6	vsSan José State	W35-27	-3.4	24	167	7.0	0	2	16	0	-0.23
7	@Colorado State	L30-31	-8.9	31	212	6.8	3	5	42	0	0.42
9	vsWyoming	W32-7	-3.6	6	53	8.8	0	—	—	—	0.54
12	@Utah State	W45-10	-10.9	12	85	7.1	1	2	23	0	0.51
13	vsAir Force	W27-19	5.9	14	107	7.6	1	5	118	1	0.75
14	@UNLV	W44-20	1.4	21	153	7.3	1	2	15	0	0.34
20	vsUCLA	L22-35	9.7	17	85	5.0	0	4	17	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.3%

Passing plays

13.6%

Rushing plays

45.1%

Standard downs

37.4%

Passing downs

19.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.13 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2024 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Boise State	2.8	0.290	—	62.1
2024	Boise State	8.4	0.430	+0.14	169.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.