#10Asher O'Hara

QB·Middle Tennessee·2020 20193.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Asher O'Hara is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Middle Tennessee. Asher's 2020 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 452 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Asher O'Hara's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

192/288 Comp/Att1960 Pass yards12 Pass TD8 INT66.7% Comp %

Rushing

584 Rush yards6 Rush TD173 Carries3.4 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts79 Punt yards39.5 Yards/punt43 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat59
Consistency57
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.41 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Rice (SP+ -9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Army	L0-42	2.7	9/14	46	0	2	—	18	0	-0.42
3	vsTroy	L14-47	2.3	16/23	109	0	1	—	45	1	-0.05
4	@UTSA	L35-37	-9.6	31/47	372	3	2	41.1	61	0	0.39
5	vsWestern Kentucky	L17-20	-3.2	23/33	217	1	0	—	98	1	0.29
6	@Florida International	W31-28	-10.7	23/42	268	2	2	—	106	2	0.31
7	vsNorth Texas	L35-52	-8.0	18/29	164	3	1	—	79	0	0.17
8	@Rice	W40-34	-9.2	24/33	333	2	0	—	52	1	0.41
11	@Marshall	L14-42	9.5	29/44	241	1	0	—	39	1	0.15
12	@Troy	W20-17	2.3	19/23	210	0	0	—	86	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

72.8%

Passing plays

93.4%

Rushing plays

50.5%

Standard downs

65.4%

Passing downs

87.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Middle Tennessee	4.8	0.385	—	198.2
2020	Middle Tennessee	3.0	0.340	-0.04	163.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.