#10Asher O'Hara

QB·Middle Tennessee·2020 20194.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Asher O'Hara is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Middle Tennessee. Asher's 2019 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 500 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Asher O'Hara's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

208/333 Comp/Att2594 Pass yards20 Pass TD8 INT62.5% Comp %

Rushing

1058 Rush yards9 Rush TD199 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts78 Punt yards39.0 Yards/punt41 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat81
Consistency83
Clutch77

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Tennessee State.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L21-40	20.7	22/32	217	2	1	41.7	32	1	0.18
2	vsTennessee State	W45-26	—	22/30	367	4	1	91.9	103	0	0.73
3	vsDuke	L18-41	-1.8	19/27	201	2	0	53.6	67	0	0.28
5	@Iowa	L3-48	16.7	15/22	110	0	0	28.7	33	0	0.09
6	vsMarshall	W24-13	-1.9	17/30	261	1	0	76.8	76	1	0.35
7	@Florida Atlantic	L13-28	-0.6	24/42	335	1	3	55.3	57	1	0.19
8	@North Texas	L30-33	-6.1	16/32	136	0	0	46.5	82	1	0.06
9	vsFlorida International	W50-17	-7.0	6/12	25	1	0	82.4	159	2	0.29
10	@Charlotte	L20-34	-6.3	9/17	118	2	1	—	148	1	0.36
12	vsRice	L28-31	-18.0	22/31	338	2	1	—	79	2	0.25
13	vsOld Dominion	W38-17	-24.4	18/25	185	2	0	—	78	0	0.37
14	@Western Kentucky	L26-31	1.7	18/33	301	3	1	—	144	0	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.9%

Passing plays

91.6%

Rushing plays

46.8%

Standard downs

63.6%

Passing downs

77.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Middle Tennessee	4.8	0.385	—	198.2
2020	Middle Tennessee	3.0	0.340	-0.04	163.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.