#4Anderson Castle

RB·Duke·2025

Anderson Castle is a Explosive Back for Duke. Anderson's 2025 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 132 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Anderson Castle's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

488 Rush yards12 Rush TD115 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions111 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume40
Explosiveness24
Consistency57
Receiving47

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.30 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Elon.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsElon	W45-17	—	3	69	23.0	0	2	8	0	1.00
2	vsIllinois	L19-45	12.9	4	11	2.8	0	1	13	0	0.28
3	@Tulane	L27-34	6.3	3	21	7.0	0	6	29	0	0.06
4	vsNC State	W45-33	4.8	12	92	7.7	3	1	13	0	0.72
5	@Syracuse	W38-3	-13.1	10	42	4.2	1	1	17	0	0.32
6	@California	W45-21	-3.2	10	28	2.8	2	1	1	0	0.32
8	vsGeorgia Tech	L18-27	9.3	11	32	2.9	0	—	—	—	0.06
10	@Clemson	W46-45	9.5	5	24	4.8	0	—	—	—	0.59
11	@UConn	L34-37	5.1	8	43	5.4	0	—	—	—	0.20
12	vsVirginia	L17-34	11.1	3	3	1.0	0	2	7	0	-0.44
13	@North Carolina	W32-25	-6.6	13	49	3.8	3	1	5	0	0.44
14	vsWake Forest	W49-32	5.7	12	21	1.8	2	2	18	0	-0.22
15	vsVirginia	W27-20	11.1	16	35	2.2	0	—	—	—	0.01
20	vsArizona State	W42-39	3.9	5	18	3.6	1	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.9%

Passing plays

3.6%

Rushing plays

26.4%

Standard downs

17.3%

Passing downs

5.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.12 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).