#34Alex Barnes

RB·Kansas State·20183.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Alex Barnes is a Featured Back for Kansas State. Alex's 2018 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 282 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alex Barnes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1355 Rush yards12 Rush TD256 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions194 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Explosiveness46
Consistency51
Receiving47

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency51th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Baylor (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Dakota	W27-24	—	21	103	4.9	0	2	9	0	-0.19
2	vsMississippi State	L10-31	23.2	17	75	4.4	0	2	19	0	-0.04
3	vsUTSA	W41-17	-22.1	13	50	3.8	1	1	30	0	0.55
4	@West Virginia	L6-35	13.2	12	49	4.1	0	2	7	0	0.08
5	vsTexas	L14-19	11.3	19	80	4.2	1	—	—	—	0.20
6	@Baylor	L34-37	2.0	22	250	11.4	3	2	22	0	0.63
7	vsOklahoma State	W31-12	13.8	34	181	5.3	4	3	51	0	0.47
9	@Oklahoma	L14-51	24.9	13	28	2.2	0	—	—	—	-0.28
10	@TCU	L13-14	6.9	23	102	4.4	0	3	22	0	0.06
11	vsKansas	W21-17	-10.0	22	117	5.3	2	1	11	0	0.41
12	vsTexas Tech	W21-6	8.7	32	136	4.3	0	2	15	0	-0.06
13	@Iowa State	L38-42	7.9	28	184	6.6	1	2	8	0	0.24

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.1%

Passing plays

9.0%

Rushing plays

53.9%

Standard downs

43.2%

Passing downs

18.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.