#2AJ Dillon

RB·Boston College·2019 20173.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

AJ Dillon is a 2-year Featured Back for Boston College. AJ's 2017 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 289 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So AJ Dillon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8833
National rank: #406
High school: Lawrence Academy
Hometown: New London, CT

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2017 Production

Rushing

1589 Rush yards14 Rush TD300 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume85
Explosiveness46
Consistency8
Receiving0

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency8th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.27 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs UConn (SP+ -19).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Northern Illinois	W23-20	-1.4	5	20	4.0	0	-0.03
2	vsWake Forest	L10-34	10.5	15	43	2.9	0	-0.24
3	vsNotre Dame	L20-49	20.8	16	58	3.6	0	-0.08
4	@Clemson	L7-34	26.4	18	57	3.2	1	0.00
5	vsCentral Michigan	W28-8	-8.6	25	120	4.8	1	-0.03
6	vsVirginia Tech	L10-23	14.3	10	35	3.5	0	-0.16
7	@Louisville	W45-42	19.2	39	272	7.0	4	0.45
8	@Virginia	W41-10	0.8	24	89	3.7	0	-0.08
9	vsFlorida State	W35-3	22.8	33	149	4.5	1	0.06
11	vsNC State	L14-17	12.9	36	196	5.4	1	0.22
12	vsUConn	W39-16	-19.2	24	200	8.3	2	0.46
13	@Syracuse	W42-14	4.0	23	193	8.4	3	0.41
1	vsIowa	L20-27	9.8	32	157	4.9	1	-0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.9%

Passing plays

0.0%

Rushing plays

49.5%

Standard downs

39.2%

Passing downs

13.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: — / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Boston College	3.9	0.290	—	90.8
2019	Boston College	2.2	0.230	-0.06	72.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.