Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars
TV Prime Video, SN-PIT·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Penguins
to win
58%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.510vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.036vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL-.237vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT1.11vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
- Back-to-backfavors PITPIT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).