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St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth

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Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the St. Louis Blues 4-2. The Mammoth scored first and never trailed. The Mammoth led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sean Durzi's goal at 11:43 of the second period, which took the Mammoth's chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 4.2 to 3.5; shots on goal were STL 28, UTA 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Joel Hofer stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 0.9 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Schmaltz (2 G, 1 A), 2. Clayton Keller (3 A), 3. Karel Vejmelka (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    N. Schmaltz2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    C. Keller3 A
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    K. Vejmelka26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL0132609228
UTAUTA162918423

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    snapxG 0.24win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    15:10

2nd period

  1. UTA
    C. Keller (27), J. Marino (17)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:45
  2. STL
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:55
  3. UTA
    snapxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:43
  4. STL
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:27

3rd period

  1. UTA
    snapxG 0.19win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-4
    6:57

Penalties

STL 20 PIM·UTA 22 PIM

1st

  • 0:02STLAlexey Toropchenko · Fightingdrawn by Jack McBain5 min
  • 0:02UTAJack McBain · Fightingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko5 min
  • 2:30UTAAlexander Kerfoot · Slashingdrawn by Jonatan Berggren2 min

2nd

  • 6:39UTABrandon Tanev · Illegal check to headdrawn by Jimmy Snuggerud2 min
  • 6:39STLBrayden Schenn · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min
  • 6:39UTABrandon Tanev · Fightingdrawn by Brayden Schenn5 min
  • 6:39STLBrayden Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Tanev5 min
  • 12:40UTALawson Crouse · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Tucker2 min
  • 12:40STLRobert Thomas · Cross checkingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 12:40STLTyler Tucker · Roughingdrawn by Lawson Crouse2 min
  • 17:25UTANick DeSimone · Holdingdrawn by Jonatan Berggren2 min
  • 18:11STLPhilip Broberg · Holdingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

3rd

  • 1:53UTADylan Guenther · Interferencedrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 6:06STLJimmy Snuggerud · High stickingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 15:37UTADylan Guenther · Interferencedrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalSTL goalFinal: UTA 100%

Biggest swing: Sean Durzi, 2nd 11:43 — UTA 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McBain · Missed · xG 0.43N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.41S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.32M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.29N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.24N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.19I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.18C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.17S. Durzi · Goal · xG 0.15D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.14L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.12J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.11N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.10M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.10J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.10N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.09J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.09N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.09D. But · Missed · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.07C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.06N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.06J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.05L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.05C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.04C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.04C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.04B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.03I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.03C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.01C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.01C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01J. McBain · Missed · xG 0.01S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA4 G · 4.2 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsUTA
3.52 G
All situations
4 G4.2
2.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL56%44%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.32 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsUTA
28
Shots on goal
23
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/4
Power play
1/3
20
Penalty minutes
22
28
Hits
14
19
Blocked shots
15
15
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6P. BrobergD000030.26012—24:45
17C. FowlerD000+110.02020—23:10
55C. ParaykoD000+110.06140—21:22
89P. BuchnevichL101020.19120—19:51
72J. FaulkD000-240.22110—19:23
21J. SnuggerudR011050.51202—18:24
10B. SchennC000+110.112076318:17
63J. NeighboursL000-110.30220—18:04
25J. KyrouR000-131.12000—16:45
18R. ThomasC011000.000023316:05
70O. SundqvistC101+150.382103615:42
75T. TuckerD000-200.00402—13:31
54D. DvorskyR000-220.021104213:25
28O. StenbergC000-100.09210013:11
29J. BerggrenR000-100.00000—12:39
23L. MaillouxD000000.01100—12:38
26N. WalkerL011+100.074107511:04
13A. ToropchenkoR000+100.14535—10:25
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30J. Hofer(L)23194.8263.07-0.9356:28

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).