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Hurricanes at Jets
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Winnipeg Jets
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 6:31 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 43% to 62%. Expected goals were close — CAR 2.4, WPG 2.4; shots on goal were CAR 28, WPG 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Brandon Bussi stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.6 goals below expected; Eric Comrie stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Staal (2 G), 2. Gabriel Vilardi (2 G), 3. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Staal2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    G. Vilardi2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    N. Ehlers1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR1122917428
WPGWPG21104113328

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(6)
    J. Martinook (6)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:16
  2. WPG
    J. Morrissey(5)
    M. Scheifele (17), D. DeMelo (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:45
  3. WPG
    G. Vilardi(7)PPG
    C. Perfetti (2)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-2
    9:28

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(7)
    J. Chatfield (4), K. Miller (7)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:08
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(11)SHG
    S. Aho (12), K. Miller (8)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-2
    6:31

3rd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(7)PPG
    N. Ehlers (10), S. Aho (13)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    4-2
    3:19
  2. WPG
    G. Vilardi(8)
    K. Connor (14)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:13

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 6:50WPGGabriel Vilardi · Trippingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min
  • 8:57CARLogan Stankoven · Hookingdrawn by Alex Iafallo2 min
  • 19:38CARSean Walker · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 19:38WPGKyle Connor · Roughingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min

2nd

  • 5:42CAREric Robinson · Hookingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 9:19WPGLogan Stanley · Cross checkingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min

3rd

  • 2:29WPGAlex Iafallo · Slashingdrawn by Mike Reilly2 min
  • 19:08CARK'Andre Miller · High stickingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCAR goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, 2nd 6:31 — CAR 43% → 62%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.22K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.19M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.18A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.17G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.16A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.15M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.13M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.10G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.10J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.06G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.05G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.04M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.04C. Koepke · Missed · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.04D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.01J. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.01D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.01D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.00N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.00N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsWPG
2.44 G
All situations
3 G2.4
0.82 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR43%57%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsWPG
28
Shots on goal
28
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
29
9
Blocked shots
20
14
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4S. GostisbehereD000+120.09010—22:42
19K. MillerD022020.04012—22:36
5J. ChatfieldD011020.05100—21:34
24S. JarvisR101+130.3610010020:18
26S. WalkerD000+140.04122—19:57
20S. AhoC022020.321106019:48
37A. SvechnikovR101-150.28000—18:03
27N. EhlersL011010.34000—17:36
64J. NystromD000010.01010—16:44
53J. BlakeR000-100.00100—15:40
11J. StaalC202+120.540005415:30
48J. MartinookL011+120.19200—13:59
22L. StankovenC000020.170023313:53
6M. ReillyD000000.00120—13:04
71T. HallL000000.00010—12:07
28W. CarrierL000+100.00200—11:32
50E. RobinsonL000000.00202—10:26
77M. JankowskiL000000.001005009:08
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32B. Bussi(W)28253.8932.38-0.6260:00

Season series

CAR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).