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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Nashville Predators
▸2
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1. The Avalanche scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Marchessault's goal at 9:11 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.8 to 2.1; shots on goal were COL 32, NSH 17. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 15 of 17 (.882); Juuse Saros stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (31 saves, .969), 2. Jonathan Marchessault (1 G), 3. Luke Schenn (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    J. Saros31 saves, .969
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Marchessault1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    L. Schenn1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL011111010132
NSHNSH091612217

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    S. Malinski(2)
    J. Drouin (17), J. Parssinen (7)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:15
  2. NSH
    J. Barron(4)
    C. Sissons (9), C. Smith (5)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:45

3rd period

  1. NSH
    J. Marchessault(18)
    L. Schenn (4), R. Josi (29)
    wristxG 0.42win prob +30 pts
    1-2
    9:11

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·NSH 2 PIM

2nd

  • 12:25NSHBrady Skjei · Hookingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

3rd

  • 17:36COLArtturi Lehkonen · High sticking double minordrawn by Justin Barron4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault, 3rd 9:11 — NSH 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.43J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.42L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.22T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.15G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.09T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.08G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.08L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.08M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.06J. Barron · Missed · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.06N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.05J. Barron · Goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.03J. Barron · Missed · xG 0.03F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.02F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Barron · Missed · xG 0.01A. Englund · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01A. Englund · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 2.1 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.81 G
All situations
2 G2.1
2.41 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL70%30%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 1.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
32
Shots on goal
17
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
15
10
Blocked shots
21
20
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-140.41010—25:16
7D. ToewsD000-110.13120—24:46
88M. NecasC000-110.34100022:30
49S. GirardD000+100.00110—21:36
29N. MacKinnonC000-180.410005021:00
62A. LehkonenL000-130.66114—20:40
70S. MalinskiD101+120.05100—19:24
37C. MittelstadtC000+100.000003316:27
27J. DrouinL011+100.03000—15:46
44C. de HaanD000-110.01100—14:42
20R. ColtonC000-100.05400013:18
67K. MiddletonD000-110.01410—12:45
18J. DruryC000-130.121105012:25
16J. ParssinenC011+130.19510011:59
17P. KellyC000000.001105711:46
94J. KivirantaL000020.19100—11:44
28M. WoodL000-130.05100—11:20
25L. O'ConnorR000000.151105011:08
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(L)17152.8821.70-0.3059:04

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).