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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ross Colton's goal at 11:32 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 39, COL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mackenzie Blackwood (37 saves, .949), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 3. Mikko Rantanen (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Blackwood37 saves, .949
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH013016210239
COLCOL08210315533

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(10)
    C. Mittelstadt (15), D. Toews (12)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +19 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:32
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(12)
    M. Rantanen (26)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    18:52

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(9)
    N. MacKinnon (37)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +6 ptsVideo
    0-3
    3:30
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(8)
    J. Marchessault (11), F. Forsberg (11)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-3
    13:03
  3. NSH
    L. Evangelista(3)
    A. Wilsby (2), T. Novak (2)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-3
    15:08
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(13)EN
    C. Makar (28), M. Rantanen (27)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:08
  5. COL
    A. Lehkonen(10)EN
    M. Rantanen (28), P. Kelly (5)
    wristxG 0.56Video
    2-5
    19:10

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·COL 6 PIM

2nd

  • 0:27NSHNick Blankenburg · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 14:16COLGivani Smith · Slashingdrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min

3rd

  • 8:50NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 8:50COLLogan O'Connor · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 9:28NSHBrady Skjei · Slashingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 11:14NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 11:14COLLogan O'Connor · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Ross Colton, 2nd 11:32 — COL 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.57N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.52N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.23C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.14C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.13R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.12L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.10D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.09D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.07C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.06D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.04P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.04S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03G. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.72 G
All situations
3 G3.5
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH55%45%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
39
Shots on goal
33
59%
Faceoffs
41%
0/1
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
16
17
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD000+130.11022—25:12
83A. WilsbyD011-120.02000—21:40
37N. BlankenburgD000+120.07112—21:00
5K. GravelD000-210.02100—17:44
81J. MarchessaultR011-230.331103317:17
90R. O'ReillyC000-330.250005617:08
14G. NyquistR000-200.0000010016:47
91S. StamkosC101-250.741108516:39
68Z. L'HeureuxL000-100.02300—16:11
7M. Del GaizoD000-100.00030—15:50
9F. ForsbergL011-250.18000—15:44
2L. SchennD000-110.00510—15:31
77L. EvangelistaR101-150.21000—13:57
10C. SissonsC000020.171003313:54
36C. SmithR000020.07010—13:09
47M. McCarronC000-110.013046712:58
17M. JankowskiL000010.00020—12:43
82T. NovakC011+130.460006311:27
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)31283.9032.37-0.6359:09

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).