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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT2·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Avalanche scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Sissons's goal at 18:40 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.1 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 31, NSH 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A), 2. Roman Josi (1 G, 1 A), 3. Juuse Saros (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL08112111231
NSHNSH01125310526

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(5)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (8), N. MacKinnon (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:54
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(2)PPG
    R. Josi (6), R. O'Reilly (6)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:31
  3. NSH
    C. Sissons(1)
    M. Del Gaizo (1), Z. L'Heureux (2)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:40

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(1)PPG
    S. Stamkos (3), J. Marchessault (5)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:15
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(6)
    D. Toews (2), C. Makar (16)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:43
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(6)EN
    G. Nyquist (3)
    wristxG 0.64win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:46
  4. NSH
    G. Nyquist(4)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.64Video
    2-5
    19:19

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

2nd

  • 1:46NSHSteven Stamkos · Hookingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 1:53COLIvan Ivan · Holdingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min
  • 2:32NSHFilip Forsberg · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 8:26COLJohn Ludvig · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 9:19NSHJeremy Lauzon · Hookingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min
  • 12:18NSHLuke Schenn · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

3rd

  • 4:48COLJoel Kiviranta · High stickingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Colton Sissons, 2nd 18:40 — NSH 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Nyquist · Goal · xG 0.64F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.64R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.35J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.27F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.27F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.20F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.19C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.19T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.15J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.13R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.11F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.07L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.07M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.06J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.04G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.00J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 4.1 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.62 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.71 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.91 G
Power play
2 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL52%48%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
26
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/4
Power play
2/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
26
Hits
23
15
Blocked shots
25
23
Giveaways
16
11
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112-130.10030—26:38
96M. RantanenR000-130.72100—26:20
7D. ToewsD011-200.19010—23:09
49S. GirardD000030.04040—23:09
29N. MacKinnonC112-160.342105622:32
37C. MittelstadtC011-220.280104521:55
82I. IvanC000-210.16202017:52
42J. MansonD000-100.00410—16:59
25L. O'ConnorR000-110.020005016:13
70S. MalinskiD000000.01100—15:57
94J. KivirantaL000030.21102—15:45
17P. KellyC000040.145105013:52
85N. PrishchepovC000020.21300013:30
51N. KovalenkoR000000.00100—12:25
3J. LudvigD000010.02402—11:32
14C. WagnerR000020.132108008:36
9T. TynanC000000.000205008:15
58O. KylingtonD000000.00000—04:27
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(L)24213.8752.48-0.5258:22

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).