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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime, Samuel Girard scoring at 2:47. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Samuel Girard's goal at 2:47 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.9, COL 3.0; shots on goal were NSH 30, COL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Alexandar Georgiev stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Samuel Girard (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alexandar Georgiev (28 saves, .933), 3. Devon Toews (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    S. Girard1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev28 saves, .933
  3. ★★★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH1120121501230
COLCOL062901512332

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(2)
    J. Parssinen (3), M. Del Gaizo (3)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:45

2nd period

  1. COL
    D. Toews(1)
    S. Girard (8), T. Tynan (1)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:32
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(9)
    J. Kiviranta (1), N. MacKinnon (23)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:37

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(2)
    R. Josi (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:59

Overtime

  1. COL
    S. Girard(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    2:47

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 10:46NSHSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min

2nd

  • 2:28NSHZachary L'Heureux · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Prishchepov2 min
  • 11:59COLJoel Kiviranta · Trippingdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min

3rd

  • 9:40COLMikko Rantanen · Boardingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Samuel Girard, OT 2:47 — COL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.16C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.16L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.16S. Girard · Goal · xG 0.15N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.12L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.12C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09I. Ivan · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.08I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.05I. Ivan · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.03L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.00C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.00J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.0 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.92 G
All situations
3 G3.0
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH46%54%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
32
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
18
21
Blocked shots
21
19
Giveaways
16
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011030.18020—26:42
76B. SkjeiD000-120.03110—21:59
14G. NyquistR000-110.12010—20:16
3J. LauzonD000010.03320—20:00
45A. CarrierD000000.00010—19:55
9F. ForsbergL000+230.27020—19:49
90R. O'ReillyC000-120.220205919:16
91S. StamkosC000-130.240022218:12
81J. MarchessaultR000-160.56100—17:40
10C. SissonsC101010.351306316:39
7M. Del GaizoD011000.00020—15:19
2L. SchennD000010.01220—14:54
36C. SmithR000000.0032010013:59
47M. McCarronC000010.073106713:24
13J. ParssinenC011+110.044006712:20
68Z. L'HeureuxL000-210.02502—11:40
77L. EvangelistaR101+130.52000—11:29
26P. TomasinoR000+110.19000—10:51
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(O)32293.9063.000.0062:44

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).