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Avalanche at Jets
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Winnipeg Jets
3
FinalTV ESPN, ALT·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Winnipeg Jets 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 4:11 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 32, WPG 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 34 of 36 (.944); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 A), 3. Josh Morrissey (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    J. Morrissey1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11321138632
WPGWPG17118111336

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(3)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.39win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:15
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(7)
    D. Toews (3), M. Rantanen (7)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:18

2nd period

  1. COL
    Y. Trenin(1)
    J. Manson (3), A. Cogliano (3)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:42
  2. WPG
    J. Morrissey(3)PPG
    M. Scheifele (4), G. Vilardi (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    6:48
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(5)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.03win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:45

3rd period

  1. WPG
    T. Toffoli(2)
    N. Ehlers (2), C. Miller (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-3
    2:06
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(1)
    D. Toews (4), N. MacKinnon (6)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +27 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:11
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(2)
    N. MacKinnon (7), C. Makar (7)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    5-3
    8:01
  4. COL
    J. Manson(2)EN
    C. Mittelstadt (5)
    wristxG 0.40Video
    6-3
    19:58

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·WPG 2 PIM

2nd

  • 2:30WPGNeal Pionk · Cross checkingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 6:34COLMiles Wood · Holdingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 18:11COLSean Walker · Hookingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCOL goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, 3rd 4:11 — COL 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.39G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.19G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.16G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.12N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.12S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.08M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.06N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.05N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.04C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.04C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.03N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.03G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.00C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.00C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.00D. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 2.6 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsWPG
3.05 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.05 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL42%58%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsWPG
32
Shots on goal
36
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
27
Hits
41
23
Blocked shots
19
8
Giveaways
10
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+220.76020—23:39
7D. ToewsD022+320.04210—22:51
96M. RantanenR213+440.29330—22:46
49S. GirardD000+100.00060—22:33
29N. MacKinnonC022+370.362103221:43
42J. MansonD112+210.43230—21:28
13V. NichushkinR101+310.11300—20:44
62A. LehkonenL101+110.03000—19:23
37C. MittelstadtC011+100.001004216:49
73Y. TreninC101+220.192004716:10
26S. WalkerD000+120.03222—15:35
28M. WoodL000-150.19322—13:09
20R. ColtonC000-140.512105812:23
3J. JohnsonD000-100.00200—12:13
9Z. PariseL000-100.00020—12:06
12B. DuhaimeL000+100.03200—09:22
11A. CoglianoC011+100.0000010008:33
51N. KovalenkoR000-110.0110010006:19
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)36343.9442.57-0.4360:00

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).