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Jets at Avalanche
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Winnipeg Jets 6-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 2:11 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 31% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were WPG 24, COL 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 34 of 39 (.872), 1.6 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Casey Mittelstadt (3 A), 2. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Mittelstadt3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0921005224
COLCOL112016512640

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    Z. Parise(2)
    J. Manson (2), C. Mittelstadt (1)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:18

2nd period

  1. WPG
    T. Toffoli(1)
    D. DeMelo (1), N. Ehlers (1)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:03
  2. WPG
    J. Morrissey(2)PPG
    M. Scheifele (3), S. Monahan (1)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:50

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(2)PPG
    M. Rantanen (4), C. Makar (5)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:11
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (5), N. MacKinnon (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:39
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(3)
    C. Mittelstadt (2), D. Toews (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-4
    8:11
  4. COL
    R. Colton(1)
    C. Mittelstadt (3), S. Girard (1)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-5
    12:35
  5. COL
    D. Toews(1)EN
    A. Cogliano (2)
    wristxG 0.54Video
    2-6
    16:25

Penalties

WPG 23 PIM·COL 15 PIM

2nd

  • 9:15COLCasey Mittelstadt · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 12:09WPGAdam Lowry · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 1:14WPGMason Appleton · Trippingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 2:34WPGGabriel Vilardi · High sticking double minordrawn by Devon Toews4 min
  • 8:55WPGDavid Gustafsson · Trippingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min
  • 10:34WPGNeal Pionk · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:32COLMikko Rantanen · Holding the stickdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
  • 19:33COLYakov Trenin · Roughingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
  • 19:33WPGMason Appleton · Roughingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 19:33COLMiles Wood · Fightingdrawn by Adam Lowry5 min
  • 19:33WPGAdam Lowry · Fightingdrawn by Miles Wood5 min
  • 20:00WPGBrenden Dillon · Roughingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min
  • 20:00COLJoel Kiviranta · Roughingdrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
  • 20:00COLBrandon Duhaime · Roughingdrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
  • 20:00WPGBrenden Dillon · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalWPG goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 2:11 — COL 31% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.54M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.24V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.19C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.18C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.17Z. Parise · Goal · xG 0.16M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.13R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.12V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.05S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.9 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCOL
2.22 G
All situations
5 G3.9
2.11 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.21 G
Power play
2 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG31%69%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCOL
24
Shots on goal
40
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/2
Power play
2/6
23
Penalty minutes
15
40
Hits
34
19
Blocked shots
15
2
Giveaways
10
11
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2D. DeMeloD011030.02500—23:28
4N. PionkD000-200.03422—23:06
5B. DillonD000-210.06634—20:58
44J. MorrisseyD101+120.07320—20:16
55M. ScheifeleC011-220.311107619:34
81K. ConnorL000-320.24100—18:14
23S. MonahanC011+120.481105016:28
7V. NamestnikovC000-210.072003316:09
13G. VilardiC000-110.05014015:36
54D. SambergD000000.00230—15:27
9A. IafalloL000000.00130—14:01
17A. LowryC000000.234176213:59
88N. SchmidtD000-330.04300—13:30
73T. ToffoliC101-120.20410013:26
62N. NiederreiterR000-110.05110—12:59
22M. AppletonC000020.14004012:58
27N. EhlersL011020.18000—12:57
19D. GustafssonC000-100.082027508:40
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)39345.8723.36-1.6459:12

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).