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Avalanche at Coyotes
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Utah Mammoth
▸4
Final/OTTV ALT, SCRIPPS·Mullett Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Nick Bjugstad scoring at 4:39. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Bjugstad's goal at 4:39 of overtime, which took the Coyotes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Coyotes, 3.8 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 31, ARI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Connor Ingram stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Nick Bjugstad (1 G), 2. Nick Schmaltz (1 G), 3. Michael Carcone (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    N. Bjugstad1 G
  2. ★★
    ARI
    N. Schmaltz1 G
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    M. Carcone1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1121811001331
ARIARI0102121317432

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(7)PPG
    M. Rantanen (16), V. Nichushkin (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    19:31

2nd period

  1. ARI
    T. Boyd(2)
    L. O'Brien (4), J. Moser (9)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:03
  2. COL
    M. Wood(4)
    C. Jones (2), R. Colton (4)
    tip-inxG 0.35win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:44
  3. ARI
    N. Schmaltz(6)PPG
    A. Kerfoot (8), C. Keller (12)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    16:22

3rd period

  1. ARI
    M. Carcone(10)
    T. Stecher (2), M. Kesselring (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:08
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(8)PPG
    C. Makar (27), M. Rantanen (17)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +32 ptsVideo
    3-3
    11:04

Overtime

  1. ARI
    N. Bjugstad(5)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.32win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:39

Penalties

COL 11 PIM·ARI 11 PIM

1st

  • 14:06COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Logan Cooley2 min
  • 18:08ARILawson Crouse · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 9:39ARIMichael Carcone · Holdingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min
  • 16:11COLCaleb Jones · Interferencedrawn by Clayton Keller2 min

3rd

  • 9:49ARILiam O'Brien · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 9:49ARILiam O'Brien · Fightingdrawn by Josh Manson5 min
  • 9:49COLJosh Manson · Fightingdrawn by Liam O'Brien5 min

OT

  • 2:36COLBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalCOL goalFinal: ARI 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad, OT 4:39 — ARI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Bjugstad · Goal · xG 0.32A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.27L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.23C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.22L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.21L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.19N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.19N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.18L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.17A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.16N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.15T. Boyd · Goal · xG 0.15N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.14A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.14M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.08L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.07N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.07J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.07M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.06M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.06M. Carcone · Goal · xG 0.06N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.04N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.04C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.04C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.03L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.03S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.03L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.02M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.02J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.01S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.01C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.01L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.01S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.00L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.00A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
ARI4 G · 3.8 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsARI
2.63 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.01 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.62 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL31%69%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 3.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsARI
31
Shots on goal
32
58%
Faceoffs
42%
2/3
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
26
Hits
18
15
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112-240.21020—28:15
7D. ToewsD000-210.03310—26:26
96M. RantanenR022-140.280107525:37
29N. MacKinnonC101070.521106425:31
13V. NichushkinR011-130.19210—25:00
4B. ByramD000-220.24222—21:58
27J. DrouinL000010.07100—17:35
25L. O'ConnorR000-100.02110—17:05
42J. MansonD000-100.06317—15:50
3J. JohnsonD000+110.01100—15:39
28M. WoodL101030.61210—15:23
20R. ColtonC011000.081007514:27
82C. JonesD011+120.03232—13:59
12R. JohansenC000000.000005611:59
11A. CoglianoC000000.00100010:18
22F. OlofssonL000-110.092003309:51
94J. KivirantaL000010.10410—09:02
90T. TatarL000010.05000—07:54
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(O)32294.9063.83-0.1764:39

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).