Skip to content
Lightning at Oilers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Edmonton Oilers
▸5
FinalTV SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 2:10 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.3 to 3.5; shots on goal were TBL 31, EDM 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 33 (.879); Jack Campbell stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A), 2. Zach Hyman (2 G), 3. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    Z. Hyman2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0931408331
EDMEDM213111210534

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    R. McLeod(7)
    V. Desharnais (3), D. Ryan (5)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:13
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(27)PPG
    C. McDavid (47), R. Nugent-Hopkins (33)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    16:43

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(18)
    A. Killorn (19), A. Cirelli (8)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    1:30
  2. EDM
    Z. Hyman(22)
    W. Foegele (5)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    3:08
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(22)
    B. Point (22), V. Hedman (27)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    7:51
  4. TBL
    B. Point(27)
    V. Hedman (28), N. Kucherov (47)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    12:03

3rd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(39)
    D. Nurse (16)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +24 pts
    3-4
    2:10
  2. EDM
    Z. Hyman(23)EN
    L. Draisaitl (45), B. Kulak (9)
    wristxG 0.65win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    17:48

Penalties

TBL 24 PIM·EDM 20 PIM

1st

  • 16:31TBLPatrick Maroon · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 17:44EDMEvander Kane · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 17:44TBLZach Bogosian · Roughingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 17:44EDMEvander Kane · Roughingdrawn by Zach Bogosian2 min
  • 20:00TBLCorey Perry · Fightingdrawn by Darnell Nurse5 min
  • 20:00EDMDarnell Nurse · Fightingdrawn by Corey Perry5 min

2nd

  • 0:03TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Klim Kostin5 min
  • 0:03EDMKlim Kostin · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 9:06TBLPatrick Maroon · Trippingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
  • 12:27EDMTyson Barrie · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 12:27TBLAnthony Cirelli · Embellishmentdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min

3rd

  • 6:57TBLSteven Stamkos · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Holloway2 min
  • 9:58EDMJesse Puljujarvi · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 10:47TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 10:47EDMWarren Foegele · Embellishmentdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 19:38TBLAlex Killorn · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTBL goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 3rd 2:10 — EDM 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.65P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.30Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.22C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.20Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.20D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.20D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.19Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.19L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.18C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.17W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.11R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.11D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.11C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.11B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.08C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.08C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.07W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.07D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.07W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.05R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.04D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.03J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.02P. Broberg · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.01K. Kostin · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM5 G · 4.3 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsEDM
3.53 G
All situations
4 G4.3
2.73 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.80 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL47%53%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.42 – 3.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsEDM
31
Shots on goal
34
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
1/4
24
Penalty minutes
20
27
Hits
23
19
Blocked shots
10
15
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD022+130.07130—25:33
98M. SergachevD000-120.04140—23:44
38B. HagelL101+130.46220—21:28
21B. PointC112071.050005021:22
91S. StamkosC101030.394125621:03
28I. ColeD000-110.01200—20:54
81E. CernakD000+100.00220—20:39
86N. KucherovR011040.52202—20:10
71A. CirelliC011030.300025917:26
17A. KillornL011+130.45112—17:09
20N. PaulL000-200.002104015:18
24Z. BogosianD000000.01212—13:01
79R. ColtonC000-220.2030010011:01
7H. FleuryD000-100.00020—10:53
41P. BellemareL000-100.002005709:12
10C. PerryR000-100.00105—09:10
90V. NamestnikovC000000.00220008:51
14P. MaroonL000-100.00009—08:09
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)33294.8793.70-0.3058:23

Season series

EDM leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).