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Hurricanes at Oilers
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Edmonton Oilers
▸6
FinalTV BSSO, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-4. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan McLeod's goal at 8:20 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 50% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were CAR 40, EDM 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.5 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1 G, 3 A), 2. Andrei Svechnikov (3 G), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov3 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR012216212440
EDMEDM11329311633

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    Z. Hyman(1)PPG
    T. Barrie (2), R. Nugent-Hopkins (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    8:22

2nd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(4)
    S. Aho (3), J. Slavin (2)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    1:38
  2. EDM
    R. McLeod(2)SHG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (2), E. Bouchard (1)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    8:20
  3. EDM
    E. Kane(1)
    C. McDavid (3)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    10:21
  4. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(5)
    M. Necas (4), B. Burns (2)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    12:35

3rd period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(2)
    Z. Hyman (3), C. McDavid (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    1:24
  2. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(6)PPG
    S. Aho (4), S. Noesen (3)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    3-4
    3:38
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(2)PPG
    C. McDavid (5), R. Nugent-Hopkins (3)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +12 pts
    3-5
    5:16
  4. CAR
    M. Necas(3)PPG
    S. Aho (5), B. Burns (3)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +10 pts
    4-5
    8:55
  5. EDM
    C. McDavid(5)EN
    L. Draisaitl (6)
    wristxG 0.92win prob +2 pts
    4-6
    19:50

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·EDM 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:17CARPaul Stastny · Holdingdrawn by Brett Kulak2 min
  • 15:30EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

2nd

  • 7:11EDMLeon Draisaitl · Slashingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 14:20CARMartin Necas · Cross checkingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 16:54CARCalvin de Haan · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min

3rd

  • 3:35EDMRyan McLeod · Interferencedrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 4:21CARBrady Skjei · Interferencedrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 8:33EDMWarren Foegele · Hookingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min
  • 14:09CARBrent Burns · Holdingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 14:26EDMEvander Kane · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Staal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCAR goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan McLeod, 2nd 8:20 — EDM 50% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.92C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.48R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.21L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.21L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.19K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.18R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.17E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.16J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.14C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.12C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.09D. Shore · Missed · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.08W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.08W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.05E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.00D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM6 G · 4.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsEDM
3.14 G
All situations
5 G4.4
2.02 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
1.02 G
Power play
2 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR45%55%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.09 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsEDM
40
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
2/5
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
24
11
Blocked shots
20
7
Giveaways
15
9
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD011050.09220—25:52
8B. BurnsD022-150.17102—25:00
22B. PesceD000-120.12020—22:07
76B. SkjeiD000-120.03202—21:19
88M. NecasC112-220.201024020:22
37A. SvechnikovR303-170.61200—20:18
82J. KotkaniemiC000040.480003819:25
20S. AhoC033-220.381006518:44
86T. TeravainenC000040.350005016:50
11J. StaalC000-100.054004714:35
24S. JarvisR000+110.19020—14:23
71J. FastR000-110.14100—13:49
26P. StastnyC000000.00002011:49
5J. ChatfieldD000030.18010—11:01
44C. de HaanD000010.02232—10:36
48J. MartinookL000-110.110005009:18
21D. StepanC000000.001105009:02
23S. NoesenR011-100.00100—08:50
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)32275.8443.48-1.5258:40

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).