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Lightning at Penguins
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, ATTSN-PT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2. The Lightning scored first; the Penguins answered. The Penguins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 2:28 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 77% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 5.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were TBL 36, PIT 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 39 of 44 (.886); Tristan Jarry stopped 34 of 36 (.944). Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jeff Carter (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    J. Carter1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL11009117236
PITPIT112117416645

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(4)PPG
    V. Hedman (2), N. Kucherov (2)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    4:10
  2. PIT
    S. Crosby(2)
    J. Guentzel (2), B. Dumoulin (1)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    17:00

2nd period

  1. PIT
    D. Heinen(1)PPG
    J. Carter (2), J. Zucker (2)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    4:11

3rd period

  1. PIT
    J. Guentzel(2)
    K. Letang (3), S. Crosby (3)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    2:28
  2. PIT
    J. Carter(1)
    K. Kapanen (1), P. Joseph (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    1-4
    3:50
  3. PIT
    B. Rust(2)PPG
    S. Crosby (4), E. Malkin (1)
    tip-inxG 0.13
    1-5
    13:31
  4. TBL
    B. Point(1)
    N. Kucherov (3), S. Stamkos (1)
    wristxG 0.11
    2-5
    14:03
  5. PIT
    R. Rakell(1)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.75
    2-6
    15:55

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·PIT 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:47PITJeff Petry · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 4:47TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min

2nd

  • 2:26TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 7:35PITEvgeni Malkin · Hookingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 10:23TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:03PITserved by D. Heinen · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 10:11PITJan Rutta · Holdingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 13:13TBLBrandon Hagel · Holdingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalTBL goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 2:28 — PIT 77% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.75B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.43E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.43J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.26S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.23J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.21E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.15J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.15B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.14E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.14B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.13J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.12J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.11D. Heinen · Goal · xG 0.11J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.10B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.08B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.07B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07P. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.07E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.06E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.06R. Poehling · On goal · xG 0.06E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.05R. Poehling · Missed · xG 0.05D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.05E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.05R. Poehling · Missed · xG 0.05J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.05K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.04B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.02P. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.01P. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.00B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT6 G · 5.9 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsPIT
2.42 G
All situations
5 G5.9
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G3.9
0.91 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL16%84%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 4.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsPIT
36
Shots on goal
45
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
41
14
Blocked shots
13
11
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011-350.21120—24:27
98M. SergachevD000-120.09030—24:16
21B. PointC101-140.380002021:31
86N. KucherovR022-140.51000—21:07
81E. CernakD000-200.06310—20:45
17A. KillornL000-100.00002—20:36
91S. StamkosC112040.282023820:18
52C. FooteD000030.04220—19:25
20N. PaulL000020.162106718:42
38B. HagelL000-120.111025016:09
5P. MyersD000010.01120—12:21
90V. NamestnikovC000-130.13120012:15
41P. BellemareL000-100.010002712:09
7H. FleuryD000+100.00100—11:37
10C. PerryR000-310.08100—11:00
79R. ColtonC000-120.254106310:22
14P. MaroonL000-130.05100—09:06
82G. FortierL000000.00100—08:25
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1B. Elliott(L)44395.8865.17+0.1759:26

Season series

PIT leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).