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Islanders at Flames
NHL

New York Islanders at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
2
Calgary Flames
▸5
FinalTV MSG+, SN·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Gudbranson's goal at 8:00 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 80% to 95%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.3, CGY 2.4; shots on goal were NYI 21, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.6 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Adam Ruzicka (1 G, 1 A), 2. Rasmus Andersson (1 A), 3. Milan Lucic (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    A. Ruzicka1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    R. Andersson1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Lucic1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI191507221
CGYCGY21018211529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    A. Ruzicka(3)
    R. Andersson (22), N. Hanifin (18)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:58
  2. NYI
    N. Dobson(7)PPG
    M. Barzal (19), J. Pageau (8)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    17:07
  3. CGY
    C. Tanev(4)
    J. Gaudreau (38), O. Kylington (18)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:08

2nd period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(24)
    A. Ruzicka (3), N. Zadorov (8)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    15:32
  2. NYI
    J. Pageau(6)
    Z. Parise (11), O. Wahlstrom (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    16:50

3rd period

  1. CGY
    E. Gudbranson(2)
    M. Lucic (8), T. Lewis (6)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    8:00
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(18)
    M. Tkachuk (29), J. Gaudreau (39)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    15:13

Penalties

NYI 7 PIM·CGY 11 PIM

1st

  • 12:33CGYChris Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 16:14CGYDillon Dube · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
  • 19:55NYIRyan Pulock · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 12:01NYIRoss Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Erik Gudbranson5 min
  • 12:01CGYErik Gudbranson · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min
  • 17:52CGYBlake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalNYI goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Erik Gudbranson, 3rd 8:00 — CGY 80% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.17E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.16A. Ruzicka · Goal · xG 0.15B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.13E. Gudbranson · Goal · xG 0.13A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.08O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.07S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06A. Ruzicka · Missed · xG 0.05S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.05C. Tanev · Goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.04T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.03D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.00
CGY5 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsCGY
2.32 G
All situations
5 G2.4
1.81 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI49%51%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsCGY
21
Shots on goal
29
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
11
12
Hits
15
22
Blocked shots
9
9
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD101-230.16070—22:08
13M. BarzalC011-100.060005020:56
3A. PelechD000020.08010—20:42
24S. MayfieldD000+100.01100—18:23
6R. PulockD000-430.14122—18:09
4A. GreeneD000-310.05120—18:03
33Z. CharaD000020.07100—17:33
27A. LeeL000-200.02110—17:29
12J. BaileyR000-120.260303317:19
18A. BeauvillierR000-120.49100—17:18
29B. NelsonC000-110.160104017:00
15C. ClutterbuckR000-200.0000010016:50
44J. PageauC112-110.222106816:38
11Z. PariseL011-110.19000—14:46
53C. CizikasC000-100.171105812:46
26O. WahlstromR011-120.23010—12:17
17M. MartinL000010.03210—10:22
32R. JohnstonL000000.00115—09:21
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)29245.8282.37-2.6360:00

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).