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New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators

FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the New Jersey Devils 4-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Philip Tomasino's goal at 3:30 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 1.6; shots on goal were NJD 25, NSH 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 27 of 30 (.900); Juuse Saros stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (1 G, 1 A), 2. Juuse Saros (23 saves, .920), 3. Philip Tomasino (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros23 saves, .920
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Tomasino1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NJDNJD0207216225
NSHNSH1911329431

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    7:31

2nd period

  1. NSH
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    3:30

3rd period

  1. NSH
    wristxG 0.16win prob +5 pts
    0-3
    6:45
  2. NJD
    wristxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    11:58
  3. NSH
    wristxG 0.46
    1-4
    18:50
  4. NJD
    wristxG 0.11
    2-4
    19:32

Penalties

NJD 6 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:27NJDAndreas Johnsson · Boardingdrawn by Eeli Tolvanen2 min
  • 6:38NSHMatt Duchene · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Graves2 min
  • 8:27NJDP.K. Subban · Slashingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 13:03NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Dougie Hamilton2 min

2nd

  • 9:01NJDDougie Hamilton · Kneeingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

3rd

  • 20:00NSHDante Fabbro · Holdingdrawn by Chase De Leo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalNJD goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Philip Tomasino, 2nd 3:30 — NSH 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Carrier · Goal · xG 0.46M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.15E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.13E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.13P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.12P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.12P. Tomasino · Goal · xG 0.12M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.11M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.11C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.09M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.08M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.07D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.06L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.06R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.06M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.04L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NJDvsNSH
1.62 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NJD32%68%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.61 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NJDvsNSH
25
Shots on goal
31
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
9
Hits
16
7
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New Jersey Devils skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. HamiltonD000-210.01032—23:27
33R. GravesD000020.04000—22:25
28D. SeversonD000-340.11200—20:34
71J. SiegenthalerD000020.03110—19:33
76P. SubbanD000000.02112—19:24
16J. VeseyL000-100.00110—18:07
37P. ZachaC000-200.00000018:06
13N. HischierC000-220.140006217:53
18D. MercerC011010.180003316:56
63J. BrattL011-130.10000—15:45
90T. TatarL101+110.17100—15:03
20M. McLeodC000-110.030006914:22
11A. JohnssonL112+120.1600210014:12
2C. WhiteD000+110.10010—14:02
59J. KuokkanenC000030.24100013:22
17Y. SharangovichC000010.060005013:19
47C. De LeoL000-110.23100—10:48
14N. BastianR000000.00100—07:13
New Jersey Devils goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)30273.9002.56-0.4459:29

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).