Islanders at Jets 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

▸2

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 0:47 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 71% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.9 to 1.6; shots on goal were NYI 31, WPG 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Eric Comrie stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Sorokin (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G), 3. Eric Comrie (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

★
I. Sorokin24 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Nelson1 G
★★★
E. Comrie29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	19	012	110	231
WPG	07	09	08	024

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

A. Lee(2)
J. Bailey (5), M. Barzal (2)
wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:12

3rd period

B. Nelson(7)
K. Palmieri (5), A. Pelech (2)
wristxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
2-0
0:47

Penalties

7 PIM·

7 PIM

1st

19:38Evgeny Svechnikov · Slashingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

2nd

11:08Scott Mayfield · Fightingdrawn by Adam Lowry5 min
11:08Adam Lowry · Fightingdrawn by Scott Mayfield5 min

3rd

16:31Mathew Barzal · Trippingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 3rd 0:47 — NYI 71% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.6 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.9 xG · 46 att WPG

0 G · 1.6 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.92 G
All situations: 0 G1.6; 3.32 G
Even strength: 0 G1.5; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

80%20%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.35 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 24; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 7
Penalty minutes: 7; 26
Hits: 21; 19
Blocked shots: 7; 9
Giveaways: 11; 9
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3A. PelechD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	3	2	0	—	22:15
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	2	4	5	—	21:14
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	20:15
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	19:21
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	1	0	0	—	17:44
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	3	0	—	17:39
21K. PalmieriC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.59	3	0	0	0	17:09
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.06	1	0	0	—	15:59
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.77	1	0	2	50	15:52
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	0	0	42	15:47
27A. LeeL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.41	1	0	0	—	15:46
29B. NelsonC	1	0	1	+1	6	0.96	1	1	0	47	15:39
12J. BaileyR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	30	15:28
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	1	1	0	—	14:56
11Z. PariseL	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	0	1	0	—	14:52
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	2	0	—	13:33
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	4	0.34	0	2	0	56	13:17
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	3	1	0	—	11:44

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(W)	24	24	0	1.000	1.55	+1.55	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Nov 62@0this game
Mar 112@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score