Flyers at Capitals 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Philadelphia Flyers

▸2

Washington Capitals

FinalTV NBCSWA, NBCSP·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Washington Capitals 2-1. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Derick Brassard's goal at 11:18 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were PHI 32, WSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Vitek Vanecek stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Martin Jones (31 saves, .969), 2. Vitek Vanecek (30 saves, .938), 3. Sean Couturier (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Jones31 saves, .969
★★
V. Vanecek30 saves, .938
★★★
S. Couturier1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	012	214	06	232
WSH	06	011	115	132

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

D. Brassard(2)
C. Atkinson (2), J. Braun (6)
wristxG 0.06win prob +20 pts
1-0
11:18
S. Couturier(5)
R. Ristolainen (1), C. Giroux (7)
snapxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
2-0
15:44

3rd period

B. Leason(2)
C. McMichael (3), J. Carlson (6)
wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
2-1
6:02

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

5:10Scott Laughton · Slashingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min
18:06Nick Jensen · Interferencedrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

2nd

5:28Derick Brassard · Interferencedrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min

3rd

13:40Nick Seeler · Holding the stickdrawn by John Carlson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Derick Brassard, 2nd 11:18 — PHI 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.4 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.8 xG · 42 att WSH

1 G · 3.4 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.82 G
All situations: 1 G3.4; 1.62 G
Even strength: 1 G2.1; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G1.3; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

24%76%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.74 – 3.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 32; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 15
Hits: 19; 12
Blocked shots: 20; 5
Giveaways: 8; 7
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.15	1	3	0	—	26:39
61J. BraunD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	1	2	0	—	24:16
70R. RistolainenD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.13	4	0	0	—	22:48
6T. SanheimD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.22	0	0	0	—	21:49
14S. CouturierC	1	0	1	+1	5	0.23	1	0	0	43	21:16
28C. GirouxR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.19	1	2	0	73	19:26
11T. KonecnyR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.14	0	0	0	—	19:03
23O. LindblomL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	16:03
25J. van RiemsdykL	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	0	—	15:56
89C. AtkinsonR	0	1	1	+1	5	0.20	0	1	0	—	14:11
21S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	0	0	2	54	14:07
86J. FarabeeL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	13:36
19D. BrassardC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.06	2	0	2	33	13:06
44N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	50	12:08
3K. YandleD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	0	0	0	—	12:05
24N. SeelerD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	2	—	11:23
38P. BrownC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	0	0	0	100	08:18
17Z. MacEwenR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	3	1	0	—	07:53

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35M. Jones(W)	32	31	1	.969	3.39	+2.39	59:57

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score