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Avalanche at Golden Knights
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Vegas Golden Knights
▸6
FinalTV NBCSN, CBC·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Golden Knights led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Pietrangelo's goal at 19:42 of the second period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 53% to 76%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.3, VGK 2.5; shots on goal were COL 33, VGK 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 3.0 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Pietrangelo (1 G, 1 A), 2. Keegan Kolesar (1 G), 3. William Carrier (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    A. Pietrangelo1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    K. Kolesar1 G
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    W. Carrier1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL112210011333
VGKVGK2102627623

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    D. Toews(1)
    N. MacKinnon (6), B. Saad (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:23
  2. VGK
    N. Holden(1)
    R. Smith (5), N. Roy (4)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    1:15
  3. VGK
    W. Karlsson(4)
    A. Martinez (2)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    15:06

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(5)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (7), G. Landeskog (9)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    3:47
  2. VGK
    K. Kolesar(1)
    A. Pietrangelo (7), S. Theodore (5)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    14:27
  3. COL
    A. Burakovsky(1)
    P. Bellemare (3), C. Makar (8)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    16:52
  4. VGK
    A. Pietrangelo(1)
    A. Tuch (3), M. Pacioretty (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +23 pts
    3-4
    19:42

3rd period

  1. VGK
    W. Carrier(1)
    S. Theodore (6), B. McNabb (2)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    3-5
    11:46
  2. VGK
    M. Pacioretty(4)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.51win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    16:50

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·VGK 2 PIM

2nd

  • 2:23VGKAlex Pietrangelo · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 12:33COLRyan Graves · Trippingdrawn by William Karlsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalCOL goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Pietrangelo, 2nd 19:42 — VGK 53% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.50A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.18M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.17A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.17N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.17W. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.12N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.11W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.10M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.07A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.07W. Carrier · Goal · xG 0.07N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.07M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.06A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.06K. Kolesar · Goal · xG 0.04R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pietrangelo · Goal · xG 0.03N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.03N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.03A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.02W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · Goal · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.00N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK6 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsVGK
2.33 G
All situations
5 G2.5
1.92 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL56%44%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 1.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsVGK
33
Shots on goal
23
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
42
Hits
46
18
Blocked shots
34
1
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
20

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011-120.20440—28:10
7D. ToewsD101+150.15230—26:09
49S. GirardD000-410.01010—23:34
96M. RantanenR101020.295003323:14
29N. MacKinnonC022020.082005322:48
92G. LandeskogL011-250.242109019:36
37J. CompherL000-110.160105019:12
20B. SaadL011-110.08200—18:53
13V. NichushkinR000-140.51510—17:17
17T. JostC000-320.341103815:53
95A. BurakovskyL101020.10110—15:33
27R. GravesD000-100.00212—15:15
24P. NemethD000-110.02110—11:31
22C. TimminsD000-110.02510—11:12
72J. DonskoiR000-110.05200—09:42
25L. O'ConnorR000-200.00310—09:41
41P. BellemareL011-130.075004007:59
18A. NewhookC000-200.00010005:29
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(L)22175.7731.95-3.0556:52

Series

VGK leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).