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Avalanche at Golden Knights
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Vegas Golden Knights
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, SN·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-1. The Avalanche scored first; the Golden Knights answered. The Golden Knights led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Pacioretty's goal at 1:11 of the second period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.7 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 18, VGK 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 17 of 18 (.944), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Marchessault (3 G), 2. William Karlsson (3 A), 3. Max Pacioretty (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    J. Marchessault3 G
  2. ★★
    VGK
    W. Karlsson3 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    M. Pacioretty1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL190504118
VGKVGK11529211535

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Saad(6)
    J. Compher (1), A. Burakovsky (3)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:50
  2. VGK
    J. Marchessault(3)
    W. Karlsson (4)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:07

2nd period

  1. VGK
    M. Pacioretty(3)
    M. Stone (3), Z. Whitecloud (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:11
  2. VGK
    J. Marchessault(4)PPG
    A. Pietrangelo (5), W. Karlsson (5)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    11:28

3rd period

  1. VGK
    J. Marchessault(5)
    R. Smith (4), W. Karlsson (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    6:01
  2. VGK
    P. Brown(2)
    R. Reaves (1), W. Carrier (2)
    wristxG 0.16
    1-5
    13:13

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·VGK 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:43COLPatrik Nemeth · Holdingdrawn by Patrick Brown2 min
  • 18:02VGKJonathan Marchessault · Trippingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min
  • 18:24COLCale Makar · Interferencedrawn by Reilly Smith2 min

2nd

  • 9:35COLAndre Burakovsky · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 9:35VGKAlex Tuch · Roughingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 9:35COLJ.T. Compher · Roughingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

3rd

  • 1:54VGKZach Whitecloud · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:13COLserved by K. Sherwood · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalCOL goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Max Pacioretty, 2nd 1:11 — VGK 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.41R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.21A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.21W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.19N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.19C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.18C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.17R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.17P. Brown · Goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.16R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.14W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.13J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.11J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.11B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.10R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.08A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.08R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.07B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.06J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.06W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.06S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.04R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.04N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.03W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.02W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK5 G · 3.7 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsVGK
1.71 G
All situations
5 G3.7
1.21 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL19%81%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.69 – 3.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsVGK
18
Shots on goal
35
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/2
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
48
Hits
44
18
Blocked shots
18
9
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000030.02310—23:22
8C. MakarD000-210.13012—21:37
27R. GravesD000-100.00420—20:46
49S. GirardD000-310.02220—20:16
96M. RantanenR000-220.20210—17:59
22C. TimminsD000+110.02320—17:59
17T. JostC000-100.313005717:50
13V. NichushkinR000-100.05520—17:44
92G. LandeskogL000-200.003106916:58
29N. MacKinnonC000-230.322102916:43
37J. CompherL011+130.171125016:39
72J. DonskoiR000-100.07120—15:01
24P. NemethD000-110.01322—14:54
95A. BurakovskyL011+100.00202—14:05
20B. SaadL101+120.37400—13:51
41P. BellemareL000-100.001004411:01
44K. SherwoodL000-110.02800—08:04
34C. SoderbergC000-100.00100007:18
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(L)35305.8573.69-1.3160:00

Series

VGK leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).