Devils at Flyers 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New Jersey Devils

▸4

Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV MSG+, NBCSP·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1. The Devils scored first and never trailed. The Devils led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Janne Kuokkanen's goal at 0:52 of the second period, which took the Devils' chances from 62% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.5 to 1.5; shots on goal were NJD 21, PHI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Brian Elliott stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mackenzie Blackwood (31 saves, .969), 2. Jesper Bratt (1 G), 3. Yegor Sharangovich (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
M. Blackwood31 saves, .969
★★
J. Bratt1 G
★★★
Y. Sharangovich1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	15	19	27	421
PHI	09	013	110	132

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

J. Bratt(7)
P. Zacha (18), K. Bahl (1)
wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
1-0
5:00

2nd period

J. Kuokkanen(7)
J. Hughes (17), Y. Sharangovich (13)
snapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
2-0
0:52

3rd period

N. Hischier(6)SHG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
3-0
5:14
Y. Sharangovich(15)
J. Hughes (18)
wristxG 0.18
4-0
14:59
J. Farabee(16)
S. Gostisbehere (9), N. Aube-Kubel (9)
snapxG 0.06
4-1
18:42

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

6:34Jesper Bratt · Hookingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min
9:21Joel Farabee · Holdingdrawn by Will Butcher2 min

3rd

4:29Ty Smith · Slashingdrawn by Nicolas Aube-Kubel2 min
8:42Sean Couturier · Slashingdrawn by Nick Merkley2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PHI

Biggest swing: Janne Kuokkanen, 2nd 0:52 — NJD 62% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 1.5 xG · 34 att PHI

1 G · 2.5 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.54 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 1.33 G
Even strength: 1 G2.1; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.11 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

33%67%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.55 – 2.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 32; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 18
Hits: 30; 19
Blocked shots: 12; 10
Giveaways: 5; 4
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

New Jersey Devils skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
28D. SeversonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	21:28
24T. SmithD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	1	2	2	—	20:25
22R. MurrayD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	3	0	—	19:23
8W. ButcherD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	0	2	0	—	19:19
5C. CarrickD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.02	0	4	0	—	19:16
86J. HughesC	0	2	2	+1	3	0.14	0	0	0	27	17:44
88K. BahlD	0	1	1	0	1	0.03	4	0	0	—	17:28
20M. McLeodC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	1	0	31	16:35
37P. ZachaC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	100	15:29
13N. HischierC	1	0	1	+2	3	0.39	1	2	0	64	15:24
59J. KuokkanenC	1	0	1	0	1	0.13	1	0	0	0	15:07
63J. BrattL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.07	0	1	2	—	15:03
44M. WoodL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.12	1	1	0	—	14:58
14N. BastianR	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	5	1	0	50	14:57
39N. MerkleyR	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	0	0	0	—	14:14
17Y. SharangovichC	1	1	2	+2	2	0.24	0	0	0	0	13:54
90J. BoqvistC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	100	12:48
23M. MaltsevL	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	0	0	70	12:28

New Jersey Devils goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29M. Blackwood(W)	32	31	1	.969	2.45	+1.45	60:00

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score