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Avalanche at Blues
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
St. Louis Blues
▸5
FinalTV NBC·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Blues came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Hoffman's goal at 11:19 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 59% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were COL 31, STL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 2.1 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (3 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 2 A), 3. Mike Hoffman (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    M. Hoffman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21119011331
STLSTL31305212530

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(5)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (16), N. MacKinnon (40)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:37
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(17)
    C. Makar (29), N. MacKinnon (41)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    3:01
  3. STL
    R. O'Reilly(18)
    B. Schenn (17)
    tip-inxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    9:49
  4. STL
    R. O'Reilly(19)
    B. Schenn (18), C. Parayko (9)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    12:40
  5. STL
    I. Barbashev(4)
    T. Krug (23), S. Blais (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    17:48

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(18)PPG
    C. Makar (30), A. Burakovsky (17)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    3-3
    8:10

3rd period

  1. STL
    M. Hoffman(14)PPG
    T. Krug (24), R. O'Reilly (23)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +29 pts
    3-4
    11:19
  2. STL
    R. O'Reilly(20)EN
    T. Bozak (9)
    snapxG 0.67win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    18:25

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·STL 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:31STLBrayden Schenn · High stickingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 0:54STLRobert Bortuzzo · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 12:59COLTyson Jost · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 13:49STLTorey Krug · Holdingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

2nd

  • 8:01STLMike Hoffman · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 18:50COLLiam O'Brien · Holdingdrawn by Jake Walman2 min

3rd

  • 9:42COLNazem Kadri · Holdingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min
  • 11:11COLRyan Graves · Trippingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min
  • 15:47STLBrayden Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCOL goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Mike Hoffman, 3rd 11:19 — STL 59% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.67V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.17J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.13I. Barbashev · Goal · xG 0.13V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.11M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.11M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.09T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.07I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.06S. Blais · Missed · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.04I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.04M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.04D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.04S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.03T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.02T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.02T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.02V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.01V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Schwartz · Missed · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.01T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.01I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.01
STL5 G · 2.5 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSTL
3.73 G
All situations
4 G2.5
3.01 G
Even strength
3 G1.0
0.72 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL80%20%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.70 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSTL
31
Shots on goal
30
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
17
Hits
28
9
Blocked shots
16
10
Giveaways
16
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123-340.25210—26:28
7D. ToewsD000-120.45010—23:36
49S. GirardD000020.19110—22:57
95A. BurakovskyL022-220.24010—20:23
92G. LandeskogL101-220.210005320:03
29N. MacKinnonC123-230.581002919:56
37J. CompherL000-210.320006418:15
24P. NemethD000000.01130—18:09
13V. NichushkinR000000.01210—17:09
91N. KadriC000-250.360023814:54
17T. JostC000030.271022514:47
27R. GravesD000-100.00102—14:33
20B. SaadL000030.590005013:53
34C. SoderbergC000-120.05210013:47
41P. BellemareL000000.000004411:15
22C. TimminsD000010.02100—09:34
61M. KautR000010.18100—07:39
38L. O'BrienC000000.00402006:55
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(L)29254.8621.86-2.1458:10

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).