Blues at Avalanche 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸4

Colorado Avalanche

FinalTV NBCSN, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-1. The Avalanche scored first; the Blues answered. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Clifford's goal at 6:46 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 76% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.1 to 1.6; shots on goal were STL 32, COL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 0.9 goals below expected.

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	217	06	29	432
COL	15	015	07	127

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

A. Burakovsky(1)PPG
J. Compher (1), S. Girard (1)
wristxG 0.05win prob +8 pts
0-1
4:55
O. Sundqvist(1)
J. Schwartz (1), R. Thomas (1)
wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
1-1
9:29
J. Kyrou(1)
T. Bozak (1), Z. Sanford (1)
wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
2-1
13:15

3rd period

K. Clifford(1)
I. Barbashev (1)
wristxG 0.22win prob +17 pts
3-1
6:46
O. Sundqvist(2)
R. Thomas (2), J. Schwartz (2)
snapxG 0.22win prob +2 pts
4-1
14:22

Penalties

8 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

1:01Marco Scandella · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Saad2 min
4:43Sammy Blais · Elbowingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
16:12Gabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Bozak2 min

2nd

7:35Robert Bortuzzo · Closing hand on puck2 min
13:27Robert Bortuzzo · Holdingdrawn by Matt Calvert2 min
14:34Nazem Kadri · Cross checkingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Kyle Clifford, 3rd 6:46 — STL 76% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.6 xG · 32 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att COL

1 G · 1.6 xG · 32 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.14 G
All situations: 1 G1.6; 2.24 G
Even strength: 0 G1.0; 0.80 G
Power play: 1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

75%25%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 27; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/2
Power play: 1/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 4; 20
Hits: 21; 19
Blocked shots: 11; 2
Giveaways: 7; 3
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55C. ParaykoD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.12	0	2	0	—	24:20
72J. FaulkD	0	0	0	+3	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	23:05
47T. KrugD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.06	2	3	0	—	22:10
90R. O'ReillyC	0	0	0	0	5	0.74	0	1	0	43	20:37
6M. ScandellaD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	1	2	—	19:01
10B. SchennC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	0	18:47
57D. PerronL	0	0	0	0	2	0.26	1	0	0	—	18:01
29V. DunnD	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	2	0	0	—	16:32
12Z. SanfordL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.26	0	3	0	—	15:49
17J. SchwartzL	0	2	2	+2	4	0.11	1	0	0	100	15:40
21T. BozakC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	1	1	0	50	15:13
41R. BortuzzoD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	1	2	4	—	14:05
70O. SundqvistC	2	0	2	+2	4	0.54	3	4	0	0	13:31
25J. KyrouR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.36	1	0	0	100	13:29
49I. BarbashevL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	1	0	0	20	13:07
18R. ThomasC	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	53	12:41
9S. BlaisL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	1	1	2	—	09:30
13K. CliffordL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.23	1	0	0	—	08:10

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	27	26	1	.963	1.58	+0.58	60:00

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score