Flames at Canadiens 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Calgary Flames

▸4

Montréal Canadiens

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Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brett Kulak's goal at 10:55 of the second period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 17% to 34%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.3 to 1.1; shots on goal were CGY 34, MTL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 27 (.963); Jake Allen stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Giordano (1 G, 1 A), 2. Noah Hanifin (1 G), 3. Mikael Backlund (1 A).

Three stars

★
M. Giordano1 G, 1 A
★★
N. Hanifin1 G
★★★
M. Backlund1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	112	113	29	434
MTL	08	110	09	127

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

N. Hanifin(4)
M. Backlund (18)
slapxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:58

2nd period

M. Giordano(8)
C. Tanev (5), E. Lindholm (26)
slapxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
2-0
0:29
B. Kulak(1)
J. Drouin (21), J. Anderson (7)
wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
2-1
10:55

3rd period

J. Leivo(5)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.21win prob +14 pts
3-1
12:49
S. Monahan(9)EN
C. Tanev (6), M. Giordano (14)
wristxG 0.50
4-1
18:50

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

14:55Rasmus Andersson · Slashingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

2nd

19:00Rasmus Andersson · Interferencedrawn by Phillip Danault2 min

3rd

6:50Paul Byron · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Brett Kulak, 2nd 10:55 — MTL 17% → 34%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.1 xG · 34 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.3 xG · 44 att MTL

1 G · 1.1 xG · 34 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.33 G
All situations: 1 G1.1; 2.23 G
Even strength: 1 G1.1; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

74%26%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 1.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 27; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 22
Hits: 39; 26
Blocked shots: 22; 5
Giveaways: 13; 7
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

Calgary Flames skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55N. HanifinD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.05	0	1	0	—	24:05
8C. TanevD	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	5	0	—	22:45
5M. GiordanoD	1	1	2	+2	1	0.02	1	5	0	—	22:41
4R. AnderssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	3	4	—	21:23
13J. GaudreauL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.19	0	1	0	—	18:51
28E. LindholmC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.12	1	2	0	53	18:29
19M. TkachukL	0	0	0	+1	5	0.51	1	0	0	—	18:15
88A. MangiapaneL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.76	1	1	0	—	17:00
23S. MonahanC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.50	0	1	0	59	16:33
11M. BacklundC	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	0	1	0	75	14:41
26M. StoneD	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	2	0	0	—	14:37
29D. DubeC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	1	0	0	0	14:13
20J. NordstromC	0	0	0	0	1	0.30	7	1	0	0	13:43
6J. VälimäkiD	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	0	3	0	—	13:38
10D. RyanC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	63	13:03
17M. LucicL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	—	11:34
27J. LeivoL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.33	3	0	0	—	10:39
24B. RitchieR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.32	3	1	0	—	09:50

Calgary Flames goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
25J. Markstrom(W)	27	26	1	.963	1.14	+0.14	60:00

Season series

CGY leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Calgary Flames at Montréal Canadiens

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score