Skip to content
Stars at Hurricanes
NHL

Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸3
Carolina Hurricanes
2
FinalTV NHLN, BSSW+·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tanner Kero's goal at 2:52 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.6 to 2.0; shots on goal were DAL 25, CAR 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jamie Benn (1 G), 2. Jake Oettinger (41 saves, .953), 3. Dougie Hamilton (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger41 saves, .953
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    D. Hamilton1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1111816325
CARCAR115112016243

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    A. Cogliano(4)
    M. Pysyk (1), B. Comeau (8)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:41
  2. CAR
    D. Hamilton(4)
    V. Trocheck (14)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:33

2nd period

  1. CAR
    H. Fleury(1)
    J. Martinook (8), B. Pesce (16)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +20 pts
    1-2
    13:04
  2. DAL
    J. Benn(7)PPG
    J. Klingberg (19), M. Heiskanen (15)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    19:31

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Kero(2)
    J. Robertson (16), D. Gurianov (13)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +26 pts
    3-2
    2:52

Penalties

DAL 2 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 8:04CARBrett Pesce · Trippingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 16:03DALMark Pysyk · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 19:14CARAndrei Svechnikov · Slashingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalDAL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Tanner Kero, 3rd 2:52 — DAL 48% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.30S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.20N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.17J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.14V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.14J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12D. Hamilton · Goal · xG 0.11M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.10S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.07M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.05H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.05M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.05B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.04W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.04D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.04D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.02H. Fleury · Goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR2 G · 2.6 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCAR
2.03 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL32%68%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.60 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCAR
25
Shots on goal
43
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
37
Hits
27
12
Blocked shots
11
9
Giveaways
18
2
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011010.07200—27:06
2J. OleksiakD000020.03410—24:15
23E. LindellD000020.06310—22:44
3J. KlingbergD011-130.06220—22:01
16J. PavelskiC000000.111203820:59
12R. FaksaC000010.116104218:16
21J. RobertsonL011+120.20000—17:38
14J. BennL101030.18420—17:37
15B. ComeauL011030.5120010016:26
11A. CoglianoC101-110.08400014:23
37J. DowlingC000010.021006714:07
49R. GardnerC000-110.052103614:07
10T. DellandreaC000-100.01300014:03
34D. GurianovR011+100.00010—13:59
5A. SekeraD000000.00100—12:21
13M. PysykD011+110.12102—10:46
64T. KeroC101+130.2711010010:24
18J. DickinsonC000010.10000006:48
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)43412.9532.62+0.6260:00

Season series

CAR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).