Stars at Predators 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

Nashville Predators

▸3

Final/OTTV FS-SW, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 3-2 in overtime, Eeli Tolvanen scoring at 1:29. The Stars scored first; the Predators answered. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Eeli Tolvanen's goal at 1:29 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were DAL 35, NSH 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943). Three stars: 1. Eeli Tolvanen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Calle Jarnkrok (1 G, 1 A), 3. Roman Josi (1 G).

Three stars

★
E. Tolvanen1 G, 1 A
★★
C. Jarnkrok1 G, 1 A
★★★
R. Josi1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	013	213	09	00	235
NSH	07	17	111	11	326

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

J. Robertson(7)
D. Gurianov (11), M. Heiskanen (13)
wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
1-0
6:12
R. Josi(4)PPG
C. Jarnkrok (7), E. Tolvanen (9)
slapxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
1-1
9:04
R. Hintz(11)PPG
M. Heiskanen (14), J. Klingberg (17)
backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
2-1
11:02

3rd period

C. Jarnkrok(11)
L. Kunin (7), M. Granlund (7)
wristxG 0.22win prob +27 pts
2-2
4:05

Overtime

E. Tolvanen(9)
V. Arvidsson (13), A. Carrier (2)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +49 pts
2-3
1:29

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

8:14Rhett Gardner · Cross checkingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
10:56Ben Harpur · Trippingdrawn by Jamie Oleksiak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NSH

100%

Biggest swing: Eeli Tolvanen, OT 1:29 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.2 xG · 47 att NSH

3 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.22 G
All situations: 3 G2.5; 2.01 G
Even strength: 2 G2.4; 0.11 G
Power play: 1 G0.0; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

45%55%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 2.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 26; 59%
Faceoffs: 41%; 1/1
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 28
Hits: 23; 6
Blocked shots: 10; 6
Giveaways: 10; 4
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	2	2	+1	2	0.09	2	0	0	—	25:46
3J. KlingbergD	0	1	1	-2	1	0.05	0	0	0	—	22:57
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	22:57
2J. OleksiakD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	2	1	0	—	22:35
24R. HintzC	1	0	1	+1	5	0.44	2	0	0	56	18:20
21J. RobertsonL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.31	0	0	0	—	18:08
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	1	0	0	52	17:27
34D. GurianovR	0	1	1	0	4	0.27	0	1	0	—	17:15
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	1	0	65	16:29
14J. BennL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	1	0	0	—	15:55
18J. DickinsonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	1	0	63	14:58
15B. ComeauL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.14	1	0	0	—	14:36
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	1	0	—	14:22
64T. KeroC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	1	0	0	0	13:12
13M. PysykD	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	12:52
10T. DellandreaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	2	0	0	100	12:14
49R. GardnerC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	3	0	2	100	11:54
11A. CoglianoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	0	0	0	11:40

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35A. Khudobin(O)	26	23	3	.885	2.48	-0.52	61:29

Season series

NSH leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

2nd period

3rd period

Overtime

2nd

Box score