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Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars

FinalTV FS-F, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Stars scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Duclair's goal at 6:26 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 46% to 59%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were FLA 23, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Chris Driedger stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Huberdeau (2 G, 1 A), 2. Chris Driedger (33 saves, .971), 3. Anthony Duclair (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    C. Driedger33 saves, .971
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Duclair1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA3140415423
DALDAL17014013134

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    4:32
  2. FLA
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:03
  3. FLA
    A. Duclair(4)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    6:26
  4. FLA
    K. Yandle (17), A. Ekblad (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    3-1
    13:37

3rd period

  1. FLA
    wristxG 0.93
    4-1
    18:55

Penalties

FLA 13 PIM·DAL 15 PIM

1st

  • 0:55DALJohn Klingberg · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 4:19FLAAaron Ekblad · Roughingdrawn by Nick Caamano2 min
  • 6:26DALAndrew Cogliano · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Anthony Duclair0 min
  • 13:21DALBlake Comeau · High stickingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 19:36DALRadek Faksa · Roughingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 19:36FLAMason Marchment · Slashingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min

2nd

  • 7:41DALserved by D. Gurianov · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:58FLANoel Acciari · Slashingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

3rd

  • 4:09DALMiro Heiskanen · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 7:22FLARiley Stillman · Fightingdrawn by Denis Gurianov5 min
  • 7:22DALDenis Gurianov · Fightingdrawn by Riley Stillman5 min
  • 8:09FLAMarkus Nutivaara · Interferencedrawn by Blake Comeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalFLA goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Duclair, 1st 6:26 — FLA 46% → 59%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.20M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.15J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.11M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.10R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.09D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.08R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.08R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.01B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.01J. L'Esperance · On goal · xG 0.00J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.00A. Sekera · On goal · xG 0.00R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL1 G · 2.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsDAL
3.93 G
All situations
1 G2.6
1.42 G
Even strength
0 G1.8
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA46%54%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsDAL
23
Shots on goal
34
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/4
Power play
1/3
13
Penalty minutes
15
23
Hits
29
17
Blocked shots
12
15
Giveaways
4
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
42G. ForslingD000+200.00020—25:34
7R. GudasD000020.00320—22:40
11J. HuberdeauL213+241.041105022:27
21A. WennbergC000+210.090205221:31
52M. WeegarD000+120.09120—20:21
23C. VerhaegheC000010.15200019:59
10B. ConnollyR000+100.441005018:41
55N. AcciariC000010.022524517:23
91A. DuclairL101+150.70100—15:45
3K. YandleD011020.05000—14:45
83J. LammikkoC000000.001204013:20
65M. NutivaaraD000010.11112—13:05
77F. VatranoR000010.04000—12:34
74O. TippettR101+110.93400—12:09
19M. MarchmentL000010.15202—11:49
27E. LuostarinenC000000.024006011:34
5A. EkbladD011+110.11002—10:36
61R. StillmanD000000.00005—09:54
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60C. Driedger(W)34331.9712.59+1.5959:40

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).