Panthers at Islanders 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Florida Panthers

New York Islanders

▸2

FinalTV NBCSN, NHL.TV·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Huberdeau's goal at 0:23 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 9% to 24%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.0 to 1.6; shots on goal were FLA 28, NYI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 28 (.929); Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G), 2. Devon Toews (1 A), 3. Aaron Ekblad.

Three stars

★
J. Pageau1 G
★★
D. Toews1 A
★★★
A. Ekblad

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	09	014	15	128
NYI	111	17	010	228

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Pageau(1)
D. Brassard (1)
wristxG 0.21win prob +13 pts
0-1
12:00

2nd period

A. Beauvillier(1)PPG
D. Toews (1), J. Bailey (1)
snapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
0-2
3:39

3rd period

J. Huberdeau(1)
M. Weegar (1), A. Barkov (1)
backhandxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
1-2
0:23

Penalties

8 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

1:29Mathew Barzal · Interferencedrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min
1:29Frank Vatrano · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Boychuk2 min
2:43Mike Hoffman · Roughingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min
5:12Evgenii Dadonov · Interferencedrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
15:37Adam Pelech · Boardingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min

2nd

2:44Mike Matheson · Illegal check to headdrawn by Johnny Boychuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau, 3rd 0:23 — FLA 9% → 24%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.6 xG · 39 att NYI

2 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.61 G
All situations: 2 G2.0; 1.21 G
Even strength: 1 G1.7; 0.40 G
Power play: 1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

41%59%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.56 – 1.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 28; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/1
Power play: 1/3; 8
Penalty minutes: 4; 32
Hits: 30; 15
Blocked shots: 12; 9
Giveaways: 5; 4
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Florida Panthers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5A. EkbladD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.03	3	0	0	—	25:34
52M. WeegarD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.20	2	1	0	—	22:45
6A. StralmanD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	2	1	0	—	21:45
16A. BarkovC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.28	4	1	0	47	20:13
68M. HoffmanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	2	0	20:05
11J. HuberdeauL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.30	2	1	0	—	18:32
61R. StillmanD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	18:22
56E. HaulaL	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	2	0	0	30	18:09
63E. DadonovL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	3	0	2	—	18:08
55N. AcciariC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	4	0	67	17:21
3K. YandleD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	17:20
10B. ConnollyR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	1	1	0	—	15:24
19M. MathesonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	—	11:32
13M. PysykD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	11:10
77F. VatranoR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	1	1	2	—	10:59
7C. SceviourC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	1	0	0	09:48
9B. BoyleC	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	2	0	0	50	09:22
14D. ToninatoC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	3	0	0	25	07:27

Florida Panthers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)	28	26	2	.929	1.99	-0.01	59:03

Series

NYI leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Florida Panthers at New York Islanders

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score