Canadiens at Penguins 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Montréal Canadiens

▸4

Pittsburgh Penguins

FinalTV ESPN+, ATTSN-PT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-1. The Penguins scored first; the Canadiens answered. The Canadiens led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joel Armia's goal at 16:17 of the second period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were MTL 26, PIT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Carey Price stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Carey Price (33 saves, .971), 2. Joel Armia (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tristan Jarry (22 saves, .880).

Three stars

★
C. Price33 saves, .971
★★
J. Armia1 G, 1 A
★★★
T. Jarry22 saves, .880

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	05	317	14	426
PIT	110	011	013	134

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

J. Guentzel(17)
B. Rust (9), E. Malkin (19)
wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
0-1
2:59

2nd period

T. Tatar(10)PPG
B. Gallagher (11), P. Danault (17)
wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
1-1
12:24
J. Armia(11)
J. Petry (13)
wristxG 0.15win prob +22 pts
2-1
16:17
S. Weber(10)
A. Lehkonen (7), J. Armia (6)
backhandxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
3-1
19:45

3rd period

B. Gallagher(14)EN
T. Tatar (17), S. Weber (15)
wristxG 0.81
4-1
18:21

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

10:21served by J. Weal · Delaying game bench face off violation2 min

2nd

11:00Evgeni Malkin · Slashingdrawn by Shea Weber2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PIT

Biggest swing: Joel Armia, 2nd 16:17 — MTL 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.0 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.4 xG · 29 att PIT

1 G · 2.0 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.43 G
All situations: 1 G2.0; 1.52 G
Even strength: 1 G1.9; 0.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

40%60%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.51 – 2.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 34; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 1/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 67
Hits: 53; 13
Blocked shots: 9; 6
Giveaways: 8; 9
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	8	2	—	25:42
26J. PetryD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.04	8	1	—	22:34
6S. WeberD	1	1	2	+1	2	0.09	4	0	—	21:53
17B. KulakD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	—	20:29
24P. DanaultC	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	1	0	42	17:30
40J. ArmiaR	1	1	2	+2	2	0.16	2	2	—	16:39
90T. TatarL	1	1	2	0	2	0.11	4	0	50	16:37
14N. SuzukiC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	57	16:30
62A. LehkonenL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.11	6	1	—	16:02
20C. FleuryD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	4	1	—	15:55
11B. GallagherR	1	1	2	0	4	0.95	3	1	—	15:39
13M. DomiC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	0	50	15:39
21N. CousinsC	0	0	0	0	3	0.48	4	1	0	15:31
43J. WealC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	1	0	14:24
44N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	5	0	38	13:38
64O. LeskinenD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	5	0	—	12:03
45R. BarberR	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	0	—	12:00
63M. PecaC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.23	1	1	0	09:15

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31C. Price(W)	34	33	1	.971	2.00	+1.00	60:00

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Dec 104@1this game
Jan 43@2OTFinal
Feb 141@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score