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Red Wings at Sabres
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
FinalTV FS-D, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Conor Sheary's goal at 1:15 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 1.8 to 1.5; shots on goal were DET 29, BUF 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Jimmy Howard stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Conor Sheary (1 G), 2. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G), 3. Linus Ullmark (28 saves, .966).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Sheary1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    L. Ullmark28 saves, .966

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET01215012129
BUFBUF0431205321

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    C. Sheary(9)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    1:15
  2. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(8)PPG
    J. Eichel (41), R. Dahlin (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    10:05
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(23)PPG
    T. Vanek (16), A. Athanasiou (17)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    17:14
  4. BUF
    K. Okposo(10)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (31), E. Rodrigues (13)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    19:29

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:19BUFSam Reinhart · Slashingdrawn by Christoffer Ehn2 min

2nd

  • 2:23DETNiklas Kronwall · Holdingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 9:41DETJustin Abdelkader · Interferencedrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 16:46BUFJeff Skinner · High stickingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min
  • 19:08DETMichael Rasmussen · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

3rd

  • 12:20BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 16:28BUFMarco Scandella · High stickingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDET goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Conor Sheary, 2nd 1:15 — BUF 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.13J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF3 G · 1.5 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsBUF
1.81 G
All situations
3 G1.5
1.30 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET57%43%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.80 – 1.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
21
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/4
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
12
Hits
10
14
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
8
1
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25M. GreenD000-120.07110—24:55
71D. LarkinC101-150.381004122:54
14G. NyquistR000-110.13000—20:18
55N. KronwallD000-120.07012—20:12
65D. DeKeyserD000020.05020—20:00
3N. JensenD000020.04010—19:42
72A. AthanasiouC011030.26010019:10
26T. VanekL011020.15100—18:20
21D. CholowskiD000010.01010—17:43
51F. NielsenC000010.011004617:23
39A. ManthaR000020.0710010017:20
52J. EricssonD000000.09110—14:51
43D. HelmC000030.21020013:32
41L. GlendeningC000000.021104213:22
8J. AbdelkaderL000-120.12302—11:53
27M. RasmussenC000000.12202011:10
61J. de la RoseL000010.010205009:11
70C. EhnC000000.0001010007:51
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35J. Howard(L)21183.8571.48-1.5257:28

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).