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Sabres at Blues
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
St. Louis Blues
▸4
FinalTV FS-MW, MSG-B·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Robert Thomas's goal at 2:03 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were BUF 31, STL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 28 of 32 (.875); Jake Allen stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robert Thomas (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake Allen (30 saves, .968), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. Thomas1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    J. Allen30 saves, .968
  3. ★★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF01011209131
STLSTL06311115432

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. STL
    R. Thomas(3)
    V. Dunn (13), T. Bozak (11)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:03
  2. STL
    J. Bouwmeester(1)
    D. Perron (10), A. Steen (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    10:01
  3. STL
    P. Maroon(3)
    R. Thomas (9), R. Bortuzzo (3)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    10:55
  4. BUF
    J. Eichel(15)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (21), S. Reinhart (29)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    17:25

3rd period

  1. STL
    R. O'Reilly(14)
    A. Steen (8), D. Perron (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    1-4
    13:47

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:16STLJoel Edmundson · Trippingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min

2nd

  • 6:29BUFMarco Scandella · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 16:45STLJoel Edmundson · Trippingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalBUF goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Robert Thomas, 2nd 2:03 — STL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.24J. Schwartz · Missed · xG 0.24J. Schwartz · Missed · xG 0.20V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.17R. Thomas · Goal · xG 0.17R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.17V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.16J. Schwartz · Missed · xG 0.15J. Bouwmeester · Goal · xG 0.14O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.14R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.14A. Steen · Missed · xG 0.14R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.12P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.12B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.10D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.10B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · Goal · xG 0.09J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.09J. Bouwmeester · Missed · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.08O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.08A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.07J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.06A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06J. Edmundson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.03R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.02D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.02R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.02C. Butler · Missed · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.01R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Butler · Missed · xG 0.01R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.01C. Butler · On goal · xG 0.00
STL4 G · 4.1 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsSTL
2.41 G
All situations
4 G4.1
2.10 G
Even strength
4 G3.9
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF25%75%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.42 – 4.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsSTL
31
Shots on goal
32
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
22
7
Blocked shots
14
8
Giveaways
7
11
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-120.18100—22:27
4Z. BogosianD000-130.07230—21:13
55R. RistolainenD011-210.04200—20:56
24L. PilutD000-120.06000—20:22
53J. SkinnerL000-220.301105018:22
23S. ReinhartC011-120.4000010018:21
9J. EichelC101-150.440003817:43
19J. McCabeD000-210.09210—17:18
6M. ScandellaD000-100.00102—16:57
71E. RodriguesC000-160.300103315:46
43C. ShearyL000-100.01000—14:43
17V. SobotkaC000010.040005714:12
37C. MittelstadtC000-220.260005014:08
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.00200014:03
22J. LarssonL000-120.081007113:57
21K. OkposoR000-110.08210—13:45
72T. ThompsonC000010.08100012:14
81R. ElieL000-100.00300—11:33
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)32284.8754.08+0.0860:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).