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Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins

FinalTV ATTSN-PT, NESN·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Boston Bruins 5-3. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 10:47 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Bruins, 3.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were BOS 51, PIT 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Bruins win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Jaroslav Halak stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.9 goals below expected; Casey DeSmith stopped 48 of 51 (.941), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Casey DeSmith (48 saves, .941), 2. Zachary Aston-Reese (2 G, 1 A), 3. Chris Wagner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    C. DeSmith48 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    PIT
    Z. Aston-Reese2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BOS
    C. Wagner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BOSBOS011118222351
PITPIT1929210528

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    17:48

2nd period

  1. PIT
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:56
  2. BOS
    snapxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    11:53
  3. PIT
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    19:01

3rd period

  1. BOS
    slapxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    7:08
  2. BOS
    wristxG 0.11win prob +29 pts
    3-3
    8:02
  3. PIT
    K. Letang (18), S. Crosby (18)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +32 pts
    3-4
    10:47
  4. PIT
    wristxG 0.94win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:54

Penalties

BOS 2 PIM·PIT 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:24BOSBrandon Carlo · Holdingdrawn by Garrett Wilson2 min

2nd

  • 9:00PITJake Guentzel · Slashingdrawn by David Backes2 min
  • 17:22PITJake Guentzel · Trippingdrawn by David Pastrnak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBOS goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 10:47 — PIT 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Aston-Reese · Goal · xG 0.94E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.27B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.17B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Aston-Reese · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.11B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.11D. Grant · Goal · xG 0.10T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.09B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.09E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kessel · Goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.07B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.06D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.04E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.04T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.01D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.01
PIT5 G · 3.1 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BOSvsPIT
3.63 G
All situations
4 G3.1
3.13 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BOS72%28%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.44 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BOSvsPIT
51
Shots on goal
28
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
35
Hits
52
7
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Boston Bruins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
47T. KrugD000-240.17100—24:38
73C. McAvoyD011-110.03400—23:09
63B. MarchandL011-120.25100—21:50
25B. CarloD101+140.12302—21:02
48M. GrzelcykD000+110.04020—20:54
88D. PastrnakR011-270.67000—20:07
46D. KrejciC101-240.470105019:21
42D. BackesR000-240.084107516:08
27J. MooreD000-100.02020—14:40
26C. CaveC000-120.170008014:24
20J. NordstromC000-110.001002514:10
55N. AcciariC000+120.144006314:07
17R. DonatoC000-140.30000014:01
43D. HeinenL000-100.00700—13:49
14C. WagnerR112+290.67500—12:42
52S. KuralyC022+110.015007512:03
23J. Forsbacka KarlssonC000-150.390105511:16
44S. KampferD000-100.02000—11:04
Boston Bruins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41J. Halak(L)27234.8522.12-1.8858:35

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).